Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 2188
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 8, 2004, 8:41 AM EDT for 50 counties in North Carolina; Chesterfield County, Lancaster County, Marlboro County, South Carolina; 23 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 8, 2004, 8:41 AM EDT (12:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 8, 2004, 10:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 76 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Chesterfield County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Brunswick County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Wythe County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 835 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 486 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 225 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 243 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.9
- Supercell composite
- 5.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
060 ACUS11 KWNS 081244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081241 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-081445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC...SRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 813... VALID 081241Z - 081445Z TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. WITH INSOLATION STRONGEST OVER RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE AREAS OF NC...DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS PROCESS WILL BE OVER NRN NC...SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN VA. THIS REGION WILL BE IN OPTIMAL OVERLAP OF NRN PORTION OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY AND SRN PORTION OF RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW -- WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST ENLARGED. 12Z GSO RAOB SHOWS 200-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 700 J/KG SBCAPE PRIOR TO DIURNAL HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW BASED ON VWP AND RAOBS. SHEAR DROPS OFF MORE GRADUALLY WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS NC. STILL...AIR MASS S OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE IN WW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. OVER THIS AREA EXPECT SBCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND FAVORABLE SRH -- ESPECIALLY FOR ANY CELLS DEVIATING RIGHTWARD FROM PREVAILING ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34547729 34548083 37208112 37227747
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 10:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anson, Bladen, Cabarrus, Cleveland, Columbus, Cumberland and 14 more | 96 min |
| Sep 8, 12:30 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alexander, Anson, Avery, Bladen, Brunswick, Burke and 31 more | 7 hr |
| Sep 8, 3:38 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Anson, Avery, Bladen, Brunswick, Burke and 31 more | 3 hr |
| Sep 8, 6:50 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Bladen, Cabarrus, Caswell, Chatham and 42 more | 7 hr |
| Sep 8, 12:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Bladen, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Duplin and 24 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 8, 12:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Duplin, Durham and 30 more | 6 hr |
| Sep 8, 3:39 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bertie, Edgecombe, Franklin, Gates, Greene, Halifax and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 8, 6:40 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Amelia, Arlington, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Clarke and 52 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.