Mesoscale Discussion 2018

Issued

Aug 16, 2004, 3:52 PM CDT (20:52 UTC)

Expired

Aug 16, 2004, 6:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

853 
ACUS11 KWNS 162054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162052 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE...SWRN AND SCENTRAL KS/ FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162052Z - 162315Z

ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN OK PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
THE SVR THREAT RELATIVELY MARGINAL.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER FAR SWRN KS AND THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NERN NM...WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER
EAST...SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVERGENCE HAS MADE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SLOWER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
THERMAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
NEAR DDC TO NEAR GBD/PTT AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. REGIONAL
PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SSWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15 KTS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED ORGANIZED ROTATION TO THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
GRADUALLY INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING. SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 5-10 KTS COMBINED WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
ABOVE 1 INCH/HR.

..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

36770393 36740386 36140389 35910292 36220084 36349932
36819721 37959694 38149774 38169951 37000235

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.