Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2015

August 16, 2004Kit Carson County, Colorado; 17 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 16, 2004, 12:45 AM MDT for Kit Carson County, Colorado; 17 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 16, 2004, 12:45 AM MDT (06:45 UTC)
Expired
Aug 16, 2004, 2:45 AM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Kit Carson County, CO, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2004-08-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 241 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2004-08-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -14 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
241 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-131 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1248 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

831 
ACUS11 KWNS 160646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160645 
KSZ000-COZ000-160845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...FAR ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160645Z - 160845Z

A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING SWD THROUGH FAR WRN KS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM NW OK TO
NWRN KS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS A
RESULT...MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS WRN KS ARE STILL BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200
J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS. SLY SFC WINDS
AND SSWLY FLOW AT 850 MB IS RESULTING IN VEERED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT LINE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP.
HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD AT 30 MPH INTO SW KS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 08/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37180204 39490268 39560039 37419987

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 16, 2:52 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray and 14 more2 hr
Aug 16, 2:55 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray and 14 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.