Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 2016
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 16, 2004, 10:39 AM MST for 7 counties in Arizona; Grant County, Hidalgo County, Luna County, New Mexico. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2004, 10:39 AM MST (17:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 16, 2004, 11:45 AM MST
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Cochise County, AZ, Graham County, AZ, Greenlee County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ, Grant County, NM, Hidalgo County, NM, Luna County, NM
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3839 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 818 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 6.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
141 ACUS11 KWNS 161740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161739 NMZ000-AZZ000-161845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN AZ AND SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161739Z - 161845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN AZ INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SPREAD SEWD INTO SWRN NM. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AROUND TUS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A BAND OF 20-30 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER SERN AZ AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THE AIR MASS WNWWD TOWARD PHX IS DESTABILIZING AS WELL... SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WEAK MEAN FLOW AND HIGH PW VALUES /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED ON 14Z TUS SOUNDING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL. IF RADAR/ SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...A PORTION OF THIS AREA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 20Z OUTLOOK AND MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..PETERS.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31631197 32361266 33081344 33621334 34091263 33481137 33151078 33250915 33090777 32070749 31500771 31170880 31271109
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 10:54 AM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Mohave | 2 hr |
| Aug 16, 1:52 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 2 hr |
| Aug 16, 1:55 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.