Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 1019
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2004, 12:50 PM EST for 5 counties in Indiana; 49 counties in Michigan; Williams County, Ohio. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2004, 12:50 PM EST (17:50 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2004, 1:45 PM EST
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 55 counties
DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Noble County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 473 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -109 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
306 ACUS11 KWNS 311751 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311750 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-311845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311750Z - 311845Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN INDIANA. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN WI...JUST NE OF GRB...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NWRN-SERN LOWER MI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH A FAIRLY NARROW AXIS OF 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETREATING NWD WITH THE BOUNDARY. POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -18C AT 500 MB/ AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NERN IND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDING IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41278504 41348626 43758643 44968617 45108555 45038461 44918398 44158320 42918273 41988347
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 7:21 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dearborn, Ohio, Switzerland | 84 min |
| May 30, 8:20 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Dearborn, Ohio, Switzerland | 7 hr |
| May 30, 8:39 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, Bartholomew, Blackford, Boone, Brown and 63 more | 96 min |
| May 30, 10:47 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dearborn, Ohio, Switzerland, Union | 58 min |
| May 30, 7:18 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia and 12 more | 87 min |
| May 31, 1:20 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Charlevoix and 43 more | 4 hr |
| May 31, 3:49 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Charlevoix and 42 more | 56 min |
| May 30, 11:40 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Gallia, Guernsey, Meigs, Monroe and 3 more | 5 hr |
| May 31, 1:40 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Ashland, Athens, Belmont, Brown, Clinton and 35 more | 2 hr |
| May 31, 3:40 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Gallia, Guernsey, Meigs, Monroe and 3 more | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.