Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 1024

May 31, 200448 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2004, 4:49 PM EDT for 48 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 31, 2004, 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired
May 31, 2004, 5:45 PM EDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 48 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2004-05-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2004-05-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 37 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
473 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

863 
ACUS11 KWNS 312049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312049 
MIZ000-312145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355...

VALID 312049Z - 312145Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS LOWER MI
ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN WI SEWD TO SWRN
MI/NWRN IND.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS
LOWER MI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /6000-8000 FT/...THOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL.

..PETERS.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41768476 45728650 45718357 41728202

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 30, 8:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Barry, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia and 12 more87 min
May 31, 1:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Antrim, Arenac, Barry, Bay, Benzie and 43 more55 min
May 31, 2:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Charlevoix and 43 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.