Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 1024
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2004, 4:49 PM EDT for 48 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2004, 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2004, 5:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 48 counties
Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 473 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -109 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
863 ACUS11 KWNS 312049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312049 MIZ000-312145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355... VALID 312049Z - 312145Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS LOWER MI ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN WI SEWD TO SWRN MI/NWRN IND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /6000-8000 FT/...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41768476 45728650 45718357 41728202
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 8:18 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia and 12 more | 87 min |
| May 31, 1:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Antrim, Arenac, Barry, Bay, Benzie and 43 more | 55 min |
| May 31, 2:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Charlevoix and 43 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.