Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2004

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH DRYING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. THIS THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL TROF
DYNAMICS NOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN UTAH WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE ACTING ON THE STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
ALSO EVIDENT IN BANDS OF ACCAS AND TOWERING CUMULUS ACROSS NEVADA
INTO WESTERN UTAH. MAIN PATTERN HAS A LARGE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHICH SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION IN SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
ACROSS THE NORTH AREAS OF UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME
STABILIZATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROF AXIS AND NVA SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER 12Z ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS
KEEP AN UNSTABLE PROFILE FOR NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THUS
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST UTAH AND ISOLATED IN THE DESERTS AND VALLEYS.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL INCREASE
CHANCES AFTER 00Z...DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING BUT ALSO A SECONDARY VORT
MAX ARRIVING FROM IDAHO. MOST ACTIVE AREA TODAY SHOULD BE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE DYNAMICS TIME WITH PEAK HEATING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .6 TO .8 INCHES OVER THE REGION ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY RAIN IN STRONGER CELLS BUT GIVEN MOVEMENT THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE WIND AND HAIL.

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW LOWERS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO .30 TO
.50 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE STABLE BUT STEEP
ENOUGH LAPSE RATES STILL EXIST WITH NO CAP SO THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SHORT WAVE TROF WITHIN THE FLOW
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROFFINESS IS MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME
MODEL SOUNDINGS DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASED SURFACE BASED CAPE. THUS
THURSDAY COULD BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY ADJUST CHANCES UPWARD FOR THURSDAY...NOT LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DONT HAVE ANY EXTREMES WITH
12-16C 700 MB READINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
MOST SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
ID...NONE.

&&

TARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
131 PM MDT TUE JUL 27 2004

UTZ013>021-281300-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
131 PM MDT TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD
OF UTAH.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM. SEE SLCSLSUT FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.