Severe Thunderstorm Warning 464, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

TSTMS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE NORHTWEST HALF OF THE FA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT TSTMS TO
CONTINUE AS LOW LVL JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF S/W MOVING THROUGH
CNTRL PLAINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE COMPLEX OR TWO OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL A THREAT.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS.

II

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
311 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS LEFT SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES... ONE ACROSS NORTH TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. UPR TROUGH OVR THE WESTERN
U.S. ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. SHWRS/TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS STORMS DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTN/EVENING THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FA. WITH SOME AREAS
ALREADY NEAR OR SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FRONT/MCS ACTIVITY...HAVE ALREADY ISSUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF OKLAHOMA FOR TONIGHT. STORMS WILL CONT
TO BE POSSIBLE TUES AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO N
TX. LEFT POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA TUES NIGHT WITH FRONT
NEAR THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE FA LATE THIS
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  80  64  86 /  90  30  10  10
HOBART OK         64  82  64  88 /  90  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  84  66  89 /  60  40  20  20
GAGE OK           60  79  61  87 /  90  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  78  63  85 /  70  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  80  67  88 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
TX...NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF AN ARNETT TO MEDFORD LINE AND
INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 4 AM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE AS A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TEMPORARILY
BY LATE TUESDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY... AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND... AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
AGAIN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ022-220300-
WASHITA OK-
952 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WASHITA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF CANUTE AT 952 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN WASHITA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ009-220315-
ELLIS OK-
953 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST LIPSCOMB
COUNTY...AT 953 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOORELAND               36.44N 99.21W
06/21/2004  80 MPH           WOODWARD           OK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED.

&&

JLP

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