Severe Thunderstorm Warning 457, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
311 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS LEFT SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES... ONE ACROSS NORTH TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. UPR TROUGH OVR THE WESTERN
U.S. ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. SHWRS/TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS STORMS DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTN/EVENING THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FA. WITH SOME AREAS
ALREADY NEAR OR SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FRONT/MCS ACTIVITY...HAVE ALREADY ISSUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF OKLAHOMA FOR TONIGHT. STORMS WILL CONT
TO BE POSSIBLE TUES AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO N
TX. LEFT POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA TUES NIGHT WITH FRONT
NEAR THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE FA LATE THIS
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  80  64  86 /  90  30  10  10
HOBART OK         64  82  64  88 /  90  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  84  66  89 /  60  40  20  20
GAGE OK           60  79  61  87 /  90  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  78  63  85 /  70  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  80  67  88 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
TX...NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO...TO
KINGFISHER...TO TECUMSEH...TO CALVIN...AND INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 4 AM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING... LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY WILL LIKELY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LEFT OVER FROM THE STORMS OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL RESULT IN HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES...AND
POSSIBLY IN BETWEEN ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS... WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT... WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. IF THE COMPLEXES BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TEMPORARILY
BY LATE TUESDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY... AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND... AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
AGAIN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
726 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ007-008-220045-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
726 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST SUMNER AND
SOUTHWEST COWLEY COUNTIES AT 726 PM CDT...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
752 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ014-220115-
ROGER MILLS OK-
752 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ROGER MILLS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURHAM AT 752
PM CDT...OR OVER EASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY TEXAS...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES