Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM STILLWATER... TO OKC... TO FREDERICK
THIS MORNING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT 5 TO 10
DEGREES...WITH CAA...CLOUD COVER...AND RAIN HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS
COOL. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO BREAK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SEEN ON
CURRENT RADARS. UPR LOW CONT OVR COLORADO/NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT POSITION AND EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF FRONT. WILL SEND UPDATE SHORTLY.

MAXWELL

223 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MCS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THE
LLJ. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL WAY TO OUR WEST...I DONT EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO SURGE SOUTH VERY FAR TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON
EXPECT STORMS TO GO NEAR DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION IN NORTH TX
COUNTIES WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO SW AND CENTRAL OK THIS
EVENING. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THIS AREA OR MAYBE A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.  HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE
SOME CONCERNS FOR FLOODING TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT CAN BETTER EVALUATE
THIS CONSIDERING RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR CWA SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVING OUT EARLY SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS TO
FOLLOW INTO EARLY WEEK. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, OK SHOULD BE IN WEAK NW FLOW. NO OTHER POPS ARE IN
FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MINOR
WAVES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  48  63  41 /  90  80  20  10
HOBART OK         71  44  65  41 /  60  60  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  52  65  42 /  50  70  20  10
GAGE OK           61  40  63  38 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  46  60  38 /  60  70  20  10
DURANT OK         82  57  65  44 /  60  80  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

9

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ARCHER
CITY... TO RYAN... TO SULPHUR... TO CALVIN OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA IS NORTH OF THE MODERATE RISK AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNDAY
TEXAS... TO LAWTON... TO YUKON... TO STILLWATER.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY NOW THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT... BUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM STILLWATER... TO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA... TO FREDERICK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND ALSO ALONG A DRYLINE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS... AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.  THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOST
UNSTABLE... AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL.  THE TORNADO THREAT
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...
BUT ANY SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES THIS EVENING... STORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS... WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS... ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY... MAY 1.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

OKZ044-045-TXZ086-090-301730-
CLAY TX-COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-WICHITA TX-
1212 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY...COTTON...JEFFERSON
AND WICHITA COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURKBURNETT...AND 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RYAN AT 1212 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...COTTON...JEFFERSON AND WICHITA COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF BURKBURNETT...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     HAIL             2 W RYAN                34.02N 97.99W
04/30/2004  0.88 INCH        JEFFERSON          OK   PUBLIC

&&

TY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
103 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     HAIL             RYAN                    34.02N 97.95W
04/30/2004  1.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             4 SE SHEPPARD AFB       33.94N 98.45W
04/30/2004  0.88 INCH        WICHITA            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HAIL             5 ENE SHEPPARD AFB      34.01N 98.42W
04/30/2004  1.00 INCH        CLAY               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TY