Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT INITIATED EARLIER JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW
OVER LUBBOCK...HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SUPPORTS VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS OF
WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AT THE INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 5000 FT. PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED TO BE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH
THE COMPLEX ENCOUNTERING GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FARTHER EAST.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...REACHING NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE
NIGHT.

THIS SCENARIO HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WERE INITIALLY EXPECTING THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ANALYSES AND
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX TO INTERRUPT THE FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER
NORTH NECESSARY TO SUPPORT HIGH POPS...BUT DO EXPECT A FEW SHRA OR
ISOLATED -TS FROM TIME TO TIME...AS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HAVE MADE INITIAL UPDATES TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.

-------------------------
345 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID-SPRING COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS BEGINNING TO ENTER FAR
NORTHWEST PART OF FA.  APPEARS RUC HAS FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON
FRONTAL POSITION AND PLACES IT FROM NEAR FAIRVIEW TO SOUTH OF ELK
CITY TO AROUND HOLLIS BY 10 PM.  STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT IN
TX PANHANDLE SO APPEARS MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS OF FA.  FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS AREA ALSO.  EXACT
EVOLUTION OF STORMS THIS EVENING UNCLEAR BUT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES
OVERNIGHT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/ CENTRAL PARTS IN VICINITY OF JET AXIS.

OVERALL SETUP FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING BUT WOULD IMAGINE
THAT COLD FRONT WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN ETA/GFS SUGGEST GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS.  HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AND LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL
GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST PARTS OF TEXAS.  REST OF EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  77  48  65 /  50  50  60  10
HOBART OK         57  73  44  67 /  60  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  85  52  67 /  30  30  60  10
GAGE OK           47  61  40  65 /  40  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  69  46  62 /  60  50  60  10
DURANT OK         67  82  57  67 /   0  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

6

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN...WESTERN..AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A CHANDLER...TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO WAURIKA...TO BELLEVUE TEXAS LINE.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN THE RISK AREA SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACROSS THE REST OF THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SEVERE OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION A DRY
LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO THE VICINITY OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
BY LATE AFTERNOON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE MARGINAL...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT AREA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT
AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
TEXAS AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY...APRIL 30.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
909 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

TXZ085-300225-
WILBARGER TX-
909 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WILBARGER COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF OKLAUNION AT 909
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN WILBARGER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

...SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
916 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

OKZ039-300230-
STEPHENS OK-
916 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR STEPHENS COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM BRAY TO 4 MILES WEST
OF VELMA TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VELMA AT 916 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN STEPHENS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

...SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             WAURIKA                 34.17N 98.00W
04/29/2004  0.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

OKZ037-TXZ086-300315-
TILLMAN OK-WICHITA TX-
954 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN AND
NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOVELAND TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELECTRA AT 954 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN TILLMAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...SPEG.

OKZ018>020-024>026-028>030-300315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 127 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA...

KINGFISHER...LOGAN...PAYNE...CANADIAN...OKLAHOMA...LINCOLN...
MCCLAIN...CLEVELAND...AND POTTAWATOMIE.

THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

JAMES