Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES FROM NEAR MESO LOW NEAR LAWTON...SOUTHWARD
INTO TEXAS ALONG ASSOCIATED DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. EXPECT RAPID
EVOLUTION THROUGH EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD. RUC INDICATES HODOGRAPHS BECOMING EVEN LESS CURVED
WITH TIME OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO VEER WITH NORTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS STILL POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH 6 PM...AND WITH SUCH RAPID STORM MOTIONS...EXPECT
THAT IT WILL BE UNNECESSARY TO EXTEND THE WATCH...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
FOR A FEW NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COUNTIES. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DECISION.

SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR
NO CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL POPS THERE OVERNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT
PRIMARY AREA OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WELL EAST AND NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LOW.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD HELP PROVIDE MODESTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED
CUMULUS OR ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO FORM BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA

WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT TO DISSIPATE WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE AREA OVER A NEARLY
SATURATED GROUND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COOL DOWN...HOWEVER ABUNDANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
POPS. DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OKC  45 55 36 59 / 90 20 10 00
HBR  41 55 34 59 / 10 20 10 00
SPS  46 61 38 59 / 00 10 10 00
GAG  35 49 30 59 / 70 20 10 00
PNC  41 51 32 58 / 99 20 20 10
DUA  51 64 40 59 / 99 10 10 00

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE
JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
110 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER PART
OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA SURROUNDS THIS AREA AND INCLUDES THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNON TO LAWTON TO EL RENO TO STILLWATER.
THE HIGH RISK INCLUDES ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ALTUS TO KINGFISHER TO PONCA CITY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXTEND THROUGH 7 PM.

IMPACTS...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL AND VIOLENT WINDS.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING SEVERAL TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS... DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER WEST TEXAS... AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ALL
AVAILABLE INFORMATION FROM THE NORMAN FORECAST OFFICE.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE THAT THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FAST MOVING...WITH STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AS FAST AS 50 TO
60 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING THE RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT...BUT IT STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

IF DISCRETE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE FURTHER...WITH THE
ATTENDANT RISK OF TORNADOES... DAMAGING HAIL AND VIOLENT WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY MAR 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW DAVIS             34.45N 97.21W
03/04/2004  70 MPH           MURRAY             OK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED

&&

KT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

OKZ025-029-030-042115-
CLEVELAND OK-OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
254 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...OKLAHOMA AND
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS BETWEEN 300 PM AND 330 PM. STRONG WINDS
AND SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIMIT VISIBILITY AND CAUSE SOME STREET FLOODING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

OKZ025-029-030-042115-
CLEVELAND OK-OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
254 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...OKLAHOMA AND
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS BETWEEN 300 PM AND 330 PM. STRONG WINDS
AND SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIMIT VISIBILITY AND CAUSE SOME STREET FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     TSTM WND GST     ARDMORE                 34.19N 97.12W
03/04/2004  60 MPH           CARTER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED AT HW 70 AND KINGS RD ON THE WEST SIDE OF
            ARDMORE.

0247 PM     TSTM WND GST     ARDMORE                 34.19N 97.12W
03/04/2004  65 MPH           CARTER             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED NEAR THE WATER PLANT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            ARDMORE.

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW VELMA              34.53N 97.75W
03/04/2004  58 MPH           STEPHENS           OK   MESONET

            REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA MESONET.

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N RINGLING            34.19N 97.59W
03/04/2004  61 MPH           JEFFERSON          OK   MESONET

            REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA MESONET.

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND GST     EL RENO                 35.54N 97.97W
03/04/2004  60 MPH           CANADIAN           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED AT HWYS 66 AND 81

&&

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW DAVIS              34.44N 97.18W
03/04/2004                   MURRAY             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF. METAL BARN DESTROYED. POWERS LINES
            DOWNED.

&&

KT