Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Norman, OK

March 4, 2004Archer County, Texas

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 4, 2004, 12:51 PM CST for Archer County, Texas. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 4, 2004, 12:51 PM CST (18:51 UTC)
Expired: Mar 4, 2004, 1:30 PM CST
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Archer County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 4, 9:45 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Sill, OK (KFSI), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 538 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

868 
WUUS54 KOUN 041851
SVROKC
TXC009-041930-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ARCHER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS

* UNTIL 130 PM CST

* AT 1250 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEGARGEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 
55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ARCHER CITY...DUNDEE...EXTREME
  SOUTHWESTERN LAKE ARROWHEAD...HOLLIDAY...LAKE KICKAPOO...MANKINS...
  MEGARGEL...NORTHEASTERN LAKE DIVERSION...SCOTLAND AND WINDTHORST

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE LIKELY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

LAT...LON 3350 9894 3383 9895 3382 9885 3383 9843
          3341 9843 3341 9896

$$

SIX

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 4, 10:43 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 4, 10:43 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST THU MAR  4 2004

VERY BUSY DAY... WE HAVE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR A LITTLE BETTER
DETAIL IN MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.  THE TEXT VERSIONS SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

THE BASIC PLAN REMAINS THE SAME... LOTS OF RAIN NORTHWEST OF I-44...
PROBABLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITHIN ABOUT
100 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A WARM FRONT THAT RUNS  FROM NEAR VERNON
TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO NEAR TULSA.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ADD MUCH
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE QUANAH/CROWELL AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

CMS
---------------------------------------------------------------------
358 AM CST THU MAR  4 2004

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS OK AND TX EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. THE WARM FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG WAA CONT ACROSS THE AREA AS LLJ CONTINUES
TO INCREASE...WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. LL
MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH 50 DEWPTS FROM
TILLMAN...TO MCCLAIN...TO SEMINOLE COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
WARM FRONT CONT TO PUSH NORTHWARD...DEWPTS WILL CONT TO INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX AND OK
TODAY...INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER NW
MEXICO WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING COLD TEMPS ALOFT...STRONG
LLJ...AND GULF MOISTURE...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED
AREAS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OK WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-2+
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HRS.

HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AS ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
DESPITE MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE BEING OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS CONT
TO PROG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN. FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AFTER FRI...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 25

OKC  60 45 54 36 / 99 50 20 20
HBR  58 41 54 34 / 99 30 20 20
SPS  65 46 59 38 / 99 30 20 20
GAG  46 35 49 30 / 99 40 20 20
PNC  55 41 50 32 / 99 70 10 20
DUA  68 51 60 40 / 99 40 20 30

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ZONES OKZ005>031-033>036-039-040
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ZONES TXZ083-084

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 4, 12:00 PM CST, 51 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER PART
OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA SURROUNDS THIS AREA AND INCLUDES THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNON TO LAWTON TO EL RENO TO STILLWATER.
THE HIGH RISK INCLUDES ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ALTUS TO KINGFISHER TO PONCA CITY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.

IMPACTS...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND VIOLENT
WINDS.

A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER WEST TEXAS... AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ALL
AVAILABLE INFORMATION FROM THE NORMAN FORECAST OFFICE.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE THAT THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FAST MOVING...WITH STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AS FAST AS 50 TO
60 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING THE RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT...BUT IT STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

IF DISCRETE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS IS QUITE HIGH...WITH THE ATTENDANT RISK OF TORNADOES...
DAMAGING HAIL AND VIOLENT WINDS.

EVEN IF DISCRETE STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP...THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AND SPEED THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY MAR 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

CMS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 4, 11:35 AM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E SALT FORK           36.63N 97.51W
03/04/2004                   GRANT              OK   PUBLIC

            3 TO 4 INCHES CROSSING GRAVEL ROAD

&&

KT

Local storm report, Mar 4, 11:42 AM CST, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 N PERRY               36.42N 97.30W
03/04/2004                   NOBLE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 INCHES OF WATER CROSSING HIGHWAY 77

&&

KT

Local storm report, Mar 4, 11:54 AM CST, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FAIRMONT                36.35N 97.70W
03/04/2004                   GARFIELD           OK   PUBLIC

            3 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER CROSSING ROADWAY

&&

KT

Local storm report, Mar 4, 12:18 PM CST, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E QUANAH              34.30N 99.64W
03/04/2004                   HARDEMAN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 INCHES OF WATER CROSSING ROADWAY AND AFFECTING TRAVEL

&&

KT

Special weather statement, Mar 4, 12:40 PM CST, 11 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

TXZ085-086-041900-
WICHITA TX-WILBARGER TX-
1240 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WESTERN WICHITA AND
WILBARGER COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 26 MILES
SOUTH OF GRAYBACK OR NEAR SEYMOUR AT 1240 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.  ALTHOUGH A TORNADO HAS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED A TORNADO
MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND GUSTS OVER 75 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSISLE.

SIX

Local storm report, Mar 4, 12:41 PM CST, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     HAIL             SEYMOUR                 33.60N 99.26W
03/04/2004  0.75 INCH        BAYLOR             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO WEATHER SPOTTER.

&&

TYJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 4, 10:19 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Hardeman	3 hr
Mar 4, 11:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Knox	46 min
Mar 4, 12:28 PM CST	Tornado Warning	OUN	Baylor	47 min
Mar 4, 12:48 PM CST	Tornado Warning	OUN	Wilbarger	27 min
Mar 4, 12:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Wichita	48 min
Mar 4, 1:14 PM CST	Tornado Warning	OUN	Wichita	31 min
Mar 4, 1:19 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.