Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
358 AM CST THU MAR  4 2004

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS OK AND TX EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. THE WARM FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG WAA CONT ACROSS THE AREA AS LLJ CONTINUES
TO INCREASE...WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. LL
MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH 50 DEWPTS FROM
TILLMAN...TO MCCLAIN...TO SEMINOLE COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
WARM FRONT CONT TO PUSH NORTHWARD...DEWPTS WILL CONT TO INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX AND OK
TODAY...INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER NW
MEXICO WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING COLD TEMPS ALOFT...STRONG
LLJ...AND GULF MOISTURE...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED
AREAS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OK WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-2+
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HRS.

HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AS ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
DESPITE MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE BEING OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS CONT
TO PROG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN. FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AFTER FRI...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 25

OKC  60 45 54 36 / 99 50 20 20
HBR  58 41 54 34 / 99 30 20 20
SPS  65 46 59 38 / 99 30 20 20
GAG  46 35 49 30 / 99 40 20 20
PNC  55 41 50 32 / 99 70 10 20
DUA  68 51 60 40 / 99 40 20 30

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ZONES OKZ019-020-025>031-039-040.
TX...NONE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041800-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS
MODERATE RISK IS SURROUNDED BY A SLIGHT RISK AREA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM QUANAH AND ALTUS...NORTHEAST TO EL RENO...TO
STILLWATER. AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TIMING...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFS...AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM
LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE DUE TO VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT STRONG SHEAR...
SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. BY LATE
THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE NORMAN NWS
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MENTIONED
WARM FRONT...IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY MAR 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
559 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

OKZ021-034-041215-
BECKHAM OK-GREER OK-
559 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM AND GREER COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAYRE AT 559
AM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM AND GREER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ELK
CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
918 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

TXZ083-041530-
HARDEMAN TX-
918 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF QUANAH AT 918 AM
CST...MOVING NORTH AT 60 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF QUANAH...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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