Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1125 AM EDT WED MAY 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT WEATHER FIELDS BASED ON
CURRENT WEATHER AND TRENDS. WE UPPED TEMPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND HAVE
ADDED STRATUS/FOG FOR WATERS TONIGHT.

RIDGE REMAINS OVER REGION WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC MODEL RUN INDICATES A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL PA. CLOUDS ALSO IN THIS AREA CURRENTLY.
MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING INSTABILITY
WITH 2000+ J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND -5 C ON THE LI. EXPECT
MORE ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY WITH FOCUS OF CONVECTION BEING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NYC AND THEN A DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. HIGH PW AND
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION INDICATES GOOD POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING.
KEEPING POPS AS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE FORMATION OF AN MCS AS WE
HAD MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR HAZE...THOUGH SURFACE OBS WILL LIKELY REACH
P6SM WITH MIXING. HAZE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.

MODERATE AMOUNTS INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THESE
TO ME FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.  RIGHT NOW NOT
EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL. ONLY HAVE TEMPO
GROUP FOR SWF WITH VCNTY FOR LGA-EWR-TEB-HPN. EXPECT SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE KEEPS ACTIVITY OUT OF JFK WITH A CLOSE CALL FOR EWR AND
LGA...BUT MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL.
&&

************* PREVIOUS 415 AM DISCUSSION **************************
SHORT TERM...

THU AND THU NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THU.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALTHOUGH IT
STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E TOWARD EVENING. FOR THU...I/LL KEEP
THE POPS SIMILAR TO TODAY/S. HOWEVER...A TROF APPROACHES FROM THE SW
THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE E. I/LL INCR THE
POPS FOR THU NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE ETA AND GFS.

FRI...I/LL FORECAST CHANCE POPS AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...NO SIG CHANGES...OTHER THAN TO ADD POPS FOR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM THU-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TURNS WINDS EASTERLY THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SE-S ON
FRI AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL E OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SCA FOR ROUGH
OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLE BEGINNING SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT NO
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

***************** END OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ************************

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

TONGUE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
130 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-130950-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
130 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SLOW
MOVING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BESIDES THE LIGHTNING IS
LOCAL FLOODING.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NEW YORK CITY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MOST DAYS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1246 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2004

NYZ067-121815-
ORANGE-
1246 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2004

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT
JERVIS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

BASED ON THIS MOVEMENT...THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF...
UNIONVILLE AROUND 115 PM...
PINE ISLAND AROUND 120 PM...
FLORIDA...GOSHEN AROUND 130 PM...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY BY 1 PM. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM MAY
FLOOD LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

SILVA