Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SURFACE PLOT SHOWS SURFACE WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S INTO
THE LOWER 70S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CU/AC
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
TONIGHT IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 700
MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
0-3KM SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2...LI/S AROUND -5...AND CAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE HARDER TO COME
BY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A
MODIFIED SURFACE PARCEL PRODUCES SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -7...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL KEEP LOWS QUITE MILD.

WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS CAPES ABOVE 2500J/KG...RELATIVELY LIGHT 850-500 MB WIND
FIELDS...AND LI/S AROUND -6. NO MAJOR FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE
PRESENT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THINK THAT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOW
EUROPEAN QUICKER...AND GFS A LITTLE DEEPER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WILL HAVE POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

CJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-191000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
631 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL 9
PM. LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTY IN ARKANSAS HAVE A TORNADO WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE UNTIL 9 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 11 PM. THE WATCH AREA IS WEST OF A HOLLY SPRINGS TO
COFFEEVILLE LINE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF THE MID SOUTH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI COUPLED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TORNADO          PEACH ORCHARD           36.28N 90.66W
10/18/2004                   CLAY               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             1 N HOLCOMB             36.41N 90.02W
10/18/2004  0.75 INCH        DUNKLIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             WALCOTT                 36.03N 90.67W
10/18/2004  0.75 INCH        GREENE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
657 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NE PARAGOULD          36.08N 90.49W
10/18/2004                   GREENE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER 2.5 MILES
            NORTHEAST OF HWYS 412 AND 135.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
726 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TORNADO          PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
10/18/2004                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            2 TORNADOES OBSERVED ON THE GROUND. REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
743 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
10/18/2004                   DUNKLIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&