Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SURFACE PLOT SHOWS SURFACE WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S INTO
THE LOWER 70S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CU/AC
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
TONIGHT IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 700
MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
0-3KM SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2...LI/S AROUND -5...AND CAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE HARDER TO COME
BY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A
MODIFIED SURFACE PARCEL PRODUCES SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -7...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL KEEP LOWS QUITE MILD.

WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS CAPES ABOVE 2500J/KG...RELATIVELY LIGHT 850-500 MB WIND
FIELDS...AND LI/S AROUND -6. NO MAJOR FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE
PRESENT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THINK THAT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOW
EUROPEAN QUICKER...AND GFS A LITTLE DEEPER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WILL HAVE POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

CJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
804 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-191000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
804 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MID SOUTH UNTIL 11 PM.
THIS WATCH INCLUDES NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WEST TENNESSEE...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE MID SOUTH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI COUPLED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DYERSBURG               36.04N 89.38W
10/18/2004                   DYER               TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
919 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             WHEELER                 34.58N 88.60W
10/18/2004  0.75 INCH        PRENTISS           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
922 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DYERSBURG               36.04N 89.38W
10/18/2004                   DYER               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UNCONFIRMED TORNADO WITH DAMAGE TO HOME AND ANOTHER
            BUILDING. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
930 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             2 SE COOTER             36.03N 89.78W
10/18/2004  1.00 INCH        PEMISCOT           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TORNADO          COOTER                  36.05N 89.81W
10/18/2004                   PEMISCOT           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 FATAL *** TORNADO STRUCK SOUTHEAST PART OF TOWN AT
            COTTONWOOD POINT NEAR MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 2 FATALITIES...2
            PERSONS STILL MISSING.

0912 PM     TORNADO          3 W PARIS               36.30N 88.36W
10/18/2004                   HENRY              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PROBABLE TORNADO RIPPED ROOF OF MANUFACTURING BUILDING.

0912 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N PARIS               36.33N 88.31W
10/18/2004                   HENRY              TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 1 INJ *** INJURY WAS REPORTED AS TREE FELL ON CAR.

0913 PM     HAIL             WHEELER                 34.58N 88.60W
10/18/2004  0.75 INCH        PRENTISS           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     HAIL             2 SE COOTER             36.03N 89.78W
10/18/2004  1.00 INCH        PEMISCOT           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ARZ049-058-190345-

LEE AR-PHILLIPS AR-
1012 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARVELL AT 1012 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
HELENA...MARIANNA...MARVELL AND WEST HELENA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.