Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1000 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004

.UPDATE...
NOTE TO USERS...DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING AND
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF SAME...ROUTINE PUBLIC AND GRIDDED FORECASTS
WILL BE DELAYED SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL AFTER
600 AM CDT.  APOLOGIES FOR ANY INCONVENIENCES THIS MAY CAUSE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...TRANS PECOS
     DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND BREWSTER COUNTY TXZ258-
     057>060-067-074-075-081.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO NMZ027>029-
     NMZ033-034.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-041000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
230 PM CST (130 AM MST) SAT APR 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE THESE STRONGER STORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE AS
SATURDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.

CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY.  FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WET TO SATURATED GROUND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.

TXZ059>063-067>070-040430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
914 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM KERMIT TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
CRANE AT 915 PM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDLAND
AND ODESSA AREAS BY 1015 PM.

SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY REQUIRING A WARNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

05

TXZ059>063-067>070-040430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
923 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM KERMIT TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
CRANE AT 920 PM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDLAND
AND ODESSA AREAS BY 1015 PM.

SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY REQUIRING A WARNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1003 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004

TXZ061-062-069-070-040445-
ECTOR-MIDLAND-REAGAN-UPTON-
1003 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004

...STRONG STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...

AT 10 PM CST...A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN HAD DEVELOPED 18 MILE WEST OF MIDKIFF. ANOTHER
STRONG STORM HAD DEVELOPED 5 MILES EAST OF RANKIN. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE NORTH AT 20 MPH. MIDLAND IS IN THE PATH OF ONE OF THESE STORMS.
IF FURTHER STRENGTHENING OCCURS...A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

05