Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...
KMAF RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS /PECOS AND BREWSTER COUNTIES/ AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN TONIGHT.  STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG IN THE BIG BEND.  INCREASING MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 65F AND PRECIP
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.  STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET OVERHEAD (90-100KT) WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER ASCENT TONIGHT...
PLUS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINING WITH 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE
CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME ROTATING CELLS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES...COLD FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS
TO TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING ALREADY LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700MB...SURFACE TO 850MB COLD DOME AND
ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THE LATEST ETA POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW
LOOK A LITTLE WARM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CAA AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE FOLLOWED TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND
HAVE OPTED TO LOWER SATURDAY/S TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY. NOT FAR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK PLAUSIBLE
AND WE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             51  65  52  76 /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               53  65  51  75 /  20  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                 64  70  57  79 /  40  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          54  64  55  79 /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX         48  59  50  70 /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                  49  65  51  76 /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                  53  66  47  76 /  20  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   52  65  53  76 /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                 53  65  53  76 /  40  20  10  10
WINK TX                   56  68  56  80 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

01/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-020800-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
200 PM CDT (100 PM MDT) FRI OCT 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.