Severe Thunderstorm Warning 350, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 AM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

.UPDATE...
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SEVERAL SPOTTER
REPORTS OF VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE ACROSS
SEVERAL COUNTIES...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS
THROUGH 15Z.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.  AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA...BUT BE RELEGATED TO
THE EASTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BARRELS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA.

EXPECT WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL
BE ASSISTED BY AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN THE RRQ OF 95 KT H25
SUBTROPICAL JET.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA...
AS WELL AS INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR
SO OF THE CWA.  MEAGER H7 TO H5 LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY
PARAMETER THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA AS 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50KT AND LI/S
PROGGED TO BE -2 TO -4 C.  JUST WHEN ANY STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PLOW INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.  THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR
FOR A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.  IF
THAT WEREN/T ENOUGH...PROGS INDICATING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
INITIALLY ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THEN ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE
H85 FRONT OVER PRETTY MUCH THE SAME LOCATIONS.  THESE AREAS INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU.  WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NOT THE ZONES AS IT APPEARS THESE
OCCURRENCES WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THAN WIDESPREAD.  DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREATS.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH VERY COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
DECREASED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AS MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. WEAK OVERRUNNING 700 MB FLOW WILL ALSO
SUPPORT KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN PLACE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. A COOL
NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN. THE GFS DEPICTS SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GUADALUPE
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS
PLACES THE AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 60-70 KNOT UPPER JET AND
JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER 70 KNOT JET ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE AREA...AND GFS DOES SHOW QUITE A BIT
OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 20 PCT...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO RAISE THEM
MORE.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE MONDAY.
DIFFLUENT/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES
EAST TOWARD THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE
LOW ORDER CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE NEXT
WEEK...SO THE WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             82  53  66  52 /  20  40  20  10
CARLSBAD NM               78  52  66  51 /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 83  62  71  57 /  20  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          82  58  64  55 /  20  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX         75  48  60  50 /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                  79  50  66  51 /  10  30  20  10
MARFA TX                  78  51  67  47 /  20  10  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   81  53  66  52 /  20  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                 81  54  66  53 /  20  50  20  10
WINK TX                   85  57  69  56 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z...TXZ045-050-058>060-067.
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-020800-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
200 PM CDT (100 PM MDT) FRI OCT 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.