Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
259 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ATTM AS CONVECTION
INITIATES JUST WEST OF THE CWA. VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH UA AND
MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 80KT UPPER JET APPROACHING THE AREA. VIS
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WEST OF THE PECOS TO
GENERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS. THIS
AS MORE THAN AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER JET MAX. AXIS OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED BY MESOSCALE MODELS
TO ROUGHLY TRANSIT THE I20 CORRIDOR...THUS EXPECT THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL BE GREATEST THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN FA
IN AREA OF STRONG FORCING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING STRONGEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE WESTERN BASIN.

FAST PROPAGATION OF STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING UNLESS CELLS TRAIN OVER A GIVEN
LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...
A PIECE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVING MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE GRADIENT AND GOOD COOLING AT 850MB WILL BRING BREEZY NORTH
WINDS TO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
RAISE POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. POPS DECREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE BIG BEND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING. GFS AND UKMET INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT GRIDS
HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IF THE LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES IT/S TREND OF INCREASING POPS...LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS RATHER WEAK...
BUT MODELS SUGGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONTINUE THE RECENT WET SPELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             62  81  55  72 /  40  20  30  20
CARLSBAD NM               57  80  54  70 /  40  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 62  84  62  77 /  20  20  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          61  82  58  74 /  30  20  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX         55  75  49  66 /  40  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                  58  80  52  68 /  40  10  20  20
MARFA TX                  50  76  51  70 /  40  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   61  82  55  72 /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                 62  82  55  72 /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                   61  85  57  74 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

10/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-010830-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
216 PM CDT (116 PM MDT) THU SEP 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS
TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCLUDE THOSE FROM THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS...NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND EAST ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS TONIGHT MAY
HELP TO LIMIT THIS THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD STORMS THREATEN THE AREA AND WARNINGS ISSUED.

LINDLEY