Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
357 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE CWFA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNERSTORMS. RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MOVED EAST
OUT OF THE STATE. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES WEST TO EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTH ARKANSAS. LI/S ARE FROM -7 TO -11 ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH ARKANSAS. WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    63  80  64  76 /  50  50  50  60
HARRISON AR       56  69  58  71 /  80  60  70  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  79  63  74 /  40  40  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     66  80  65  78 /  40  30  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  71  59  72 /  80  60  70  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  81  66  81 /  30  30  40  40
SEARCY AR         61  79  63  76 /  60  60  60  60
MOUNT IDA AR      64  78  63  73 /  50  50  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  76  62  73 /  60  60  60  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY UNTIL 600 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...
ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>039...ARZ0 43>047.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
825 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
825 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTH WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS OVER THE NORTH WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO
FOCUS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE STORMS IN
THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. GIVEN
THIS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS.

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS.

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