Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA...BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT. ETA IS NOT QUITE AS AMBITIOUS AS THE GFS FOR POS
AND QPF. INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. 3 TO 8 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH ARKANSAS THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT. LI/S TO -8
ARE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THIS WILL BE ONE AREA TO WATCH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
WELL TONIGHT. MOST OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT THOUGH. STRONG LIFT IS NOTED EARLY IN THE
DAY SATURDAY ON THE LATEST CROSS SECTIONS...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING AN END TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP
AGAIN. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    65  76  61  72 /  60  60  70  80
HARRISON AR       58  69  54  66 /  90 100  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  75  60  72 /  60  60  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  79  62  73 /  40  60  70  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  69  55  66 / 100 100  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     66  80  62  74 /  30  50  70  80
SEARCY AR         63  76  61  71 /  60  60  70  80
MOUNT IDA AR      66  74  58  72 /  60  60  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  72  57  70 /  70  70  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 AM
CDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...
ARZ030>034...ARZ037>039.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1215 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS NOW THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALSO...THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...KEEPING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...SO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL SECTIONS OF
THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST MONDAY...AND CONTINUE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

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