Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1149 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
CWFA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
KLZK RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO
MISSOURI. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AND NORTH...BUT WILL EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE TO SHOW ITSELF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHS WHERE
THEY ARE AT AND ADJUST THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. WILL EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. 18Z SOUNDING WILL BE LAUNCHED SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHILE A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING BUT EXPECT NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO THE STATE WITH THE NORTH MOST FAVORED. WOULD EXPECT THE
MOST CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SOME SEVERE STORMS MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
THEN EVOLVING INTO HEAVY RAINS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT AS
MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS AND LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTH. WITH THAT AREA HAVING RECEIVED A LOT OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING
ALREADY...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
EXCLUDED SALINE...PULASKI...LONOKE...PRAIRIE...AND MONROE COUNTIES
WHO MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND DO NOT HAVE BIG CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE ON TEMP
FORECASTS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL START TO COME OUT SATURDAY AND
WILL MOVE OUT FASTER BY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY MOVE ALL THE HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE
WEATHER OUT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN HAVE HIGH POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH POPS DECREASING FROM THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

GFSLR SHOWS A WEAK REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL AIR TO TAKE PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWED DOWN IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTED ITS PASSAGE
ACCORDINGLY. LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE BALL PARK ALREADY.
ADJUSTED WINDS TO FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
UNTIL 600 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...
ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>039.
&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1215 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS NOW THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALSO...THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...KEEPING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...SO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL SECTIONS OF
THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST MONDAY...AND CONTINUE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

38

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     HAIL             3 S BATESVILLE          35.72N 91.62W
04/23/2004  0.75 INCH        INDEPENDENCE       AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
818 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JASPER                  36.01N 93.19W
04/23/2004                   NEWTON             AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED IN THE COUNTY.

&&

29