Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Warnings in 2004

Tornado Warning 17, NWS Jackson, KY

May 30, 2004Estill County, Powell County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this tornado warning at May 30, 2004, 6:39 PM EDT for Estill County, Powell County, Kentucky. It was in force for 51 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2004, 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2004, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Estill County, KY, Powell County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 30, 7:05 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Clay City, KY	TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS MAIN STREET AND BOTTOM SECOND STREET.
May 30, 7:25 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Slade, KY	SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 11 IN SLADE. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 30, 2:40 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 58 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -139 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 799 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 142 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

181 
WFUS53 KJKL 302239
TORJKL
KYC065-197-302330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
639 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  POWELL COUNTY IN KENTUCKY.
  ESTILL COUNTY IN KENTUCKY.

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT.

* AT 639 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
  A LIKELY TORNADO NEAR WISEMAN CROSSING STATION...OR 5 MILES NORTH
  OF IRVINE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  UNION HALL AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  PITTS AROUND 650 PM EDT.
  KNOWLTON AROUND 655 PM EDT.
  ROSSLYN AROUND 700 PM EDT.
  ROGERS CHAPEL AROUND 705 PM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY MOVE TO A BASEMENT AND GET UNDER SOMETHING STURDY. IF
NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...MOVE TO THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING...IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH
AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3783 8365 3772 8371 3769 8383 3766 8405
          3783 8409 3789 8384 3789 8371

$$

HEINLEIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at May 30, 4:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 30, 4:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

ADDED TORNADO WATCH AND FLOOD WATCH

FRONT ON THE WAY TONIGHT...PLENTY OF ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
WHICH WILL PROCEED COLD FRONT WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PLENTY OF SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LATEST VWP
SHOWS MORE THAN 90 DEGREES OF VEERING IN THE LOWEST 4KFT. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGED TO TEMPS...AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEW TIMING OF FRONT...AND USED CAT POPS BOTH
TONIGHT...AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SKIES BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE
AFTERNOON. NO VERY SHARP FOCUS CURRENTLY FOR ACTIVITY...AND THUS HAS
BEEN ERRATIC AT BEST...WITH ROTATION IN NUMEROUS STORMS. COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS AS IT COME THROUGH...AND WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN MORE BOWS/LINES...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE AND
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

628 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

CURRENTLY HAVE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MCC FORMED ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE TOWARDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR TRAINING CELLS. SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES HAVE BEEN PUTTING DOWN
RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARM FRONT...A S/W IS LIFTING OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN TENN...BUT IS
SLIDING MORE EAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FIRING IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO S/W. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING MECHANISMS RELAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWER TONIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT
BEST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WITH SLOWER TIMING...LINE OF STORMS
WILL HAVE TO PUSH A LONG WAY AND MAINTAIN. WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
OUT THERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE COMING IN MORE WET ADIABATIC. STILL HEALTHY WIND
PROFILE COULD MAKE UP FOR THIS. IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WIND WOULD
BE THE STRONGER THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WETBULBS OF 13K ADVERTISED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE QUITE A TALL CORE FROM A
STORM. VEERING PROFILE AND PROGGED 0-3 KM HELICITIES IN THE 200-250
RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY. WITH LESS OF A THREAT PREDICTED BY SPC...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH STRONG STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND SAVED THE SEVERE DETAILS
FOR THE HWO. FLASH FLOODING STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONCERN WITH SOME
TRAINING CELLS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND CORRESPONDINGLY PRODUCES HIGHLY ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF
QPF. LIKE THE TAKE ON THE ETA BETTER...AS SOME DIGGING INTO THE GFS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVEALS SOME QUESTIONABLE OUTCOMES.
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLOWER
TIMING...MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL AT
LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING. CHANGED VERY LITTLE OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST PACKAGE FROM 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD.

951 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING.  WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH FROM
TN WILL EXPECT MILDER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THE
EARLIEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.  TO
THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT PRECIP MORE TOWARDS MORNING AND WITH WARM
FRONT JUST ARRIVING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO SPLIT SOME.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....
TORNADO WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PIKE COUNTY...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

&&

PIEPER

Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 5:37 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
537 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>119-311200-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-POWELL KY-
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-WOLFE KY-
537 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST... AND
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION...COMBINED WITH THE PATTERN OF WINDS ALOFT
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY...
INCLUDING FUNNEL CLOUDS...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
...AND HIGH WATER DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

KYZ120-311200-
PIKE KY-
537 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY...
INCLUDING FUNNEL CLOUDS...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
...AND HIGH WATER DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

PIEPER

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 30, 3:40 PM EDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VAN                     37.15N 82.87W
05/30/2004                   LETCHER            KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            3 FEET OF RUNNING WATER ACROSS HWYS 1811 AND 15 NEAR THE
            CITY OF VAN

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 3:43 PM EDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WOOTON                  37.18N 83.30W
05/30/2004                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR STRANDED IN HIGH WATER ON HURRICANE CREEK ROAD. CAR
            MOVED A LITTLE DOWNSTREAM.

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 5:25 PM EDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
525 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
05/30/2004                   KNOX               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROOF BLOWN OFF CHURCH AT BLUE
            GABLE STARIGHTS ON HWY 25E. BLUE GABLE STRAIGHTS IS ON
            HWY 25E AND EXTENDS ONE MILE TO THE WEST.

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 5:52 PM EDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
552 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             PUTNEY                  36.91N 83.23W
05/30/2004  1.75 INCH        HARLAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPTORED BY HARLAN STATE POLICE POST.

&&

KO

Local storm report, May 30, 6:04 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
604 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
05/30/2004                   PERRY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 1088 AT LOTTS CREEK UNDER WATER AND CLOSED. REPORTED
            BY HAZARD STATE POLICE.

&&

KO

Local storm report, May 30, 6:06 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
606 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VICCO                   37.22N 83.06W
05/30/2004                   PERRY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 15 AT VICCO HAS AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF WATER
            FLOWING OVER ROAD. WATER COMING OFF MOUNTAINSIDE AND
            FLOWING OVER ROAD. REPORTED BY HAZARD STATE POLICE.

&&

KO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 12:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt	22 min
May 30, 1:13 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Breathitt	3 hr
May 30, 1:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knott, Letcher, Perry	51 min
May 30, 1:30 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Perry	3 hr
May 30, 1:48 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Knott	3 hr
May 30, 2:02 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay	28 min
May 30, 2:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Leslie	35 min
May 30, 2:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan	49 min
May 30, 2:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Jackson	47 min
May 30, 3:11 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Leslie, Letcher	3 hr
May 30, 3:14 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Jackson	31 min
May 30, 3:21 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Harlan	4 hr
May 30, 3:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay	36 min
May 30, 3:59 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Clay	4 hr
May 30, 4:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay	25 min
May 30, 4:27 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Knott, Perry	4 hr
May 30, 4:38 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Leslie	37 min
May 30, 4:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Harlan	41 min
May 30, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan	17 min
May 30, 6:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill	41 min
May 30, 6:22 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Leslie	23 min
May 30, 6:26 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Jackson	49 min
May 30, 6:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Powell	42 min
May 30, 6:41 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Estill, Montgomery, Powell	4 hr
May 30, 7:31 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Powell	44 min
May 30, 7:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Montgomery	51 min
May 30, 7:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill	41 min
May 30, 7:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Wolfe	34 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Kentucky, 2004 Every tornado warning in 2004 Tornadoes in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.