Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Jackson, KY

May 30, 2004Harlan County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 30, 2004, 5:28 PM EDT for Harlan County, Kentucky. It was in force for 17 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2004, 5:28 PM EDT (21:28 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2004, 5:45 PM EDT
In force: 17 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Harlan County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 2 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 30, 2:40 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 290 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 58 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -139 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 799 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 142 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

381 
WUUS53 KJKL 302128
SVRJKL
KYC095-302145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
528 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HARLAN COUNTY IN KENTUCKY.

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

* AT 528 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR
  CLOVER-DARBY...OR 14 MILES EAST OF HARLAN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOLMES MILL AROUND 535 PM EDT.
  CLOVER FORK AROUND 540 PM EDT.
  BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AROUND 545 PM EDT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3699 8315 3681 8318 3675 8283 3695 8279

$$

HEINLEIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 30, 4:31 PM EDT, 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 30, 4:31 PM EDT, 57 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

ADDED TORNADO WATCH AND FLOOD WATCH

FRONT ON THE WAY TONIGHT...PLENTY OF ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
WHICH WILL PROCEED COLD FRONT WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PLENTY OF SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LATEST VWP
SHOWS MORE THAN 90 DEGREES OF VEERING IN THE LOWEST 4KFT. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGED TO TEMPS...AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEW TIMING OF FRONT...AND USED CAT POPS BOTH
TONIGHT...AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SKIES BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE
AFTERNOON. NO VERY SHARP FOCUS CURRENTLY FOR ACTIVITY...AND THUS HAS
BEEN ERRATIC AT BEST...WITH ROTATION IN NUMEROUS STORMS. COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS AS IT COME THROUGH...AND WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN MORE BOWS/LINES...WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE AND
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

628 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

CURRENTLY HAVE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MCC FORMED ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE TOWARDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR TRAINING CELLS. SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES HAVE BEEN PUTTING DOWN
RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARM FRONT...A S/W IS LIFTING OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN TENN...BUT IS
SLIDING MORE EAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FIRING IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO S/W. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING MECHANISMS RELAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWER TONIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT
BEST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WITH SLOWER TIMING...LINE OF STORMS
WILL HAVE TO PUSH A LONG WAY AND MAINTAIN. WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
OUT THERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE COMING IN MORE WET ADIABATIC. STILL HEALTHY WIND
PROFILE COULD MAKE UP FOR THIS. IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WIND WOULD
BE THE STRONGER THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WETBULBS OF 13K ADVERTISED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE QUITE A TALL CORE FROM A
STORM. VEERING PROFILE AND PROGGED 0-3 KM HELICITIES IN THE 200-250
RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY. WITH LESS OF A THREAT PREDICTED BY SPC...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH STRONG STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND SAVED THE SEVERE DETAILS
FOR THE HWO. FLASH FLOODING STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONCERN WITH SOME
TRAINING CELLS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND CORRESPONDINGLY PRODUCES HIGHLY ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF
QPF. LIKE THE TAKE ON THE ETA BETTER...AS SOME DIGGING INTO THE GFS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVEALS SOME QUESTIONABLE OUTCOMES.
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLOWER
TIMING...MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL AT
LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING. CHANGED VERY LITTLE OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST PACKAGE FROM 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD.

951 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING.  WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH FROM
TN WILL EXPECT MILDER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THE
EARLIEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.  TO
THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT PRECIP MORE TOWARDS MORNING AND WITH WARM
FRONT JUST ARRIVING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO SPLIT SOME.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....
TORNADO WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PIKE COUNTY...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

&&

PIEPER

Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 5:55 AM EDT, 11 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
555 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-311100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
555 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE SEVERE EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES.
AGAIN...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

GEOGERIAN

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 30, 1:23 PM EDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
123 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     HAIL             HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
05/30/2004  0.75 INCH        PERRY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 1:39 PM EDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
05/30/2004                   PERRY              KY   PUBLIC

            6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROAD AT APPELBEES.

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 3:38 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOOTON                  37.18N 83.30W
05/30/2004                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HUGE OAK TREE OVER HWY 80 NEAR WOOTEN FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 3:40 PM EDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VAN                     37.15N 82.87W
05/30/2004                   LETCHER            KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            3 FEET OF RUNNING WATER ACROSS HWYS 1811 AND 15 NEAR THE
            CITY OF VAN

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 3:43 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WOOTON                  37.18N 83.30W
05/30/2004                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR STRANDED IN HIGH WATER ON HURRICANE CREEK ROAD. CAR
            MOVED A LITTLE DOWNSTREAM.

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 5:25 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
525 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
05/30/2004                   KNOX               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROOF BLOWN OFF CHURCH AT BLUE
            GABLE STARIGHTS ON HWY 25E. BLUE GABLE STRAIGHTS IS ON
            HWY 25E AND EXTENDS ONE MILE TO THE WEST.

&&

DBS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 12:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt	22 min
May 30, 1:13 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Breathitt	3 hr
May 30, 1:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knott, Letcher, Perry	51 min
May 30, 1:30 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Perry	3 hr
May 30, 1:48 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Knott	3 hr
May 30, 2:02 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay	28 min
May 30, 2:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Leslie	35 min
May 30, 2:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan	49 min
May 30, 2:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Jackson	47 min
May 30, 3:11 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Leslie, Letcher	3 hr
May 30, 3:14 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Jackson	31 min
May 30, 3:21 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Harlan	4 hr
May 30, 3:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay	36 min
May 30, 3:59 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Clay	4 hr
May 30, 4:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay	25 min
May 30, 4:27 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Knott, Perry	4 hr
May 30, 4:38 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Leslie	37 min
May 30, 4:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Harlan	41 min
May 30, 6:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill	41 min
May 30, 6:22 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Leslie	23 min
May 30, 6:26 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Jackson	49 min
May 30, 6:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Powell	42 min
May 30, 6:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill, Powell	51 min
May 30, 6:41 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Estill, Montgomery, Powell	4 hr
May 30, 7:31 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Powell	44 min
May 30, 7:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Montgomery	51 min
May 30, 7:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill	41 min
May 30, 7:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Wolfe	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.