Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Jackson, KY

May 30, 2004Clay County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this flash flood warning at May 30, 2004, 3:59 PM EDT for Clay County, Kentucky. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2004, 3:59 PM EDT (19:59 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2004, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Clay County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 58 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -139 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 799 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 142 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KJKL 302002
FFWJKL
KYC051-310000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CLAY COUNTY IN KENTUCKY.

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

* AT 356 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY      
  RAIN ACROSS CLAY COUNTY.  RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT UP TO ONE AND   
  ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE IN THE 
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ROADS...FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS
OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH
FLOODING

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
FLOWING WATERS BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...
ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3720 8396 3706 8383 3693 8354 3708 8353
          3727 8355 3735 8377

$$

OUDEMAN

2 follow-up statements

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 302335
FFSJKL
KYC051-119-193-310000-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

*  KNOTT COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM EDT.
*  PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM EDT.
*  CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...
ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK
AND MUDSLIDES.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3724 8398 3705 8387 3695 8355 3724 8349
          3729 8335 3702 8314 3730 8269 3752 8303
          3729 8350 3734 8380

$$

OUDEMAN

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 310004
FFSJKL
KYC051-310015-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
803 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CLAY COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...

AT 803 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS ENDED AND IS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING...THUS 
THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE HAVE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ONGOING FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THEREFORE STAY TUNED TO 
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. PLEASE PASS 
YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND 
HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE 
IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3719 8398 3694 8354 3726 8352 3735 8379

$$

OUDEMAN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 30, 6:28 AM EDT, 9 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 30, 6:28 AM EDT, 9 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY HAVE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MCC FORMED ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE TOWARDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR TRAINING CELLS. SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES HAVE BEEN PUTTING DOWN
RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARM FRONT...A S/W IS LIFTING OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN TENN...BUT IS
SLIDING MORE EAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FIRING IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO S/W. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING MECHANISMS RELAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWER TONIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT
BEST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WITH SLOWER TIMING...LINE OF STORMS
WILL HAVE TO PUSH A LONG WAY AND MAINTAIN. WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
OUT THERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE COMING IN MORE WET ADIABATIC. STILL HEALTHY WIND
PROFILE COULD MAKE UP FOR THIS. IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WIND WOULD
BE THE STRONGER THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WETBULBS OF 13K ADVERTISED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE QUITE A TALL CORE FROM A
STORM. VEERING PROFILE AND PROGGED 0-3 KM HELICITIES IN THE 200-250
RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY. WITH LESS OF A THREAT PREDICTED BY SPC...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH STRONG STORM WORDING IN THE ZONES AND SAVED THE SEVERE DETAILS
FOR THE HWO. FLASH FLOODING STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONCERN WITH SOME
TRAINING CELLS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND CORRESPONDINGLY PRODUCES HIGHLY ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF
QPF. LIKE THE TAKE ON THE ETA BETTER...AS SOME DIGGING INTO THE GFS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVEALS SOME QUESTIONABLE OUTCOMES.
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLOWER
TIMING...MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL AT
LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING. CHANGED VERY LITTLE OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST PACKAGE FROM 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSIONS...

951 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING.  WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH FROM
TN WILL EXPECT MILDER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THE
EARLIEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.  TO
THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT PRECIP MORE TOWARDS MORNING AND WITH WARM
FRONT JUST ARRIVING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO SPLIT SOME.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

530 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. DESTABILIZATION ON SUNDAY WILL ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...BUT AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST...WILL EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL FOR A WHILE. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH...ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TO OUR
WEST...SO THE STORMS COULD VERY WELL BE WEAKENING AS THEY ARRIVE.

DRIER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISSOLVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
MONDAY...AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF.

AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIP CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO
BE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. EXPECTING A WEAKER SECONDARY FRONT ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WOULD BE LIMITED. LATE WEEK SEEMS
UNCERTAIN AS WELL...WITH THE GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW OUR DIRECTION
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IN THAT TIME
FRAME IS LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....NONE.

&&

GEOGERIAN

Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 5:55 AM EDT, 10 hours 4 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
555 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-311100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
555 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE SEVERE EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES.
AGAIN...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

GEOGERIAN

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 30, 1:23 PM EDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
123 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     HAIL             HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
05/30/2004  0.75 INCH        PERRY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 1:39 PM EDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
05/30/2004                   PERRY              KY   PUBLIC

            6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROAD AT APPELBEES.

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 3:38 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOOTON                  37.18N 83.30W
05/30/2004                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HUGE OAK TREE OVER HWY 80 NEAR WOOTEN FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 3:40 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VAN                     37.15N 82.87W
05/30/2004                   LETCHER            KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            3 FEET OF RUNNING WATER ACROSS HWYS 1811 AND 15 NEAR THE
            CITY OF VAN

&&

DBS

Local storm report, May 30, 3:43 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WOOTON                  37.18N 83.30W
05/30/2004                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR STRANDED IN HIGH WATER ON HURRICANE CREEK ROAD. CAR
            MOVED A LITTLE DOWNSTREAM.

&&

DBS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 12:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt	22 min
May 30, 1:13 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Breathitt	3 hr
May 30, 1:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knott, Letcher, Perry	51 min
May 30, 1:30 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Perry	3 hr
May 30, 1:48 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Knott	3 hr
May 30, 2:02 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay	28 min
May 30, 2:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Leslie	35 min
May 30, 2:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan	49 min
May 30, 2:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Jackson	47 min
May 30, 3:11 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Leslie, Letcher	3 hr
May 30, 3:14 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Jackson	31 min
May 30, 3:21 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Harlan	4 hr
May 30, 3:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay	36 min
May 30, 4:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay	25 min
May 30, 4:27 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Knott, Perry	4 hr
May 30, 4:38 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Leslie	37 min
May 30, 4:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Harlan	41 min
May 30, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan	17 min
May 30, 6:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill	41 min
May 30, 6:22 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Leslie	23 min
May 30, 6:26 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Jackson	49 min
May 30, 6:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Powell	42 min
May 30, 6:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill, Powell	51 min
May 30, 6:41 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Estill, Montgomery, Powell	4 hr
May 30, 7:31 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Powell	44 min
May 30, 7:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Montgomery	51 min
May 30, 7:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill	41 min
May 30, 7:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Wolfe	34 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.