Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) BUSY WEATHER TODAY AS HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FFA REMAINS UP TODAY ACROSS WHOLE
AREA. FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN SEVERAL OF OUR
LOUISIANA PARISHES AS OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA NOSING NORTHEAST INTO THE DELTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE TROUGH AND TRAIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP
THE TROUGH TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA
TODAY AS WELL. THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST AT
DAY BREAK FRIDAY BUT A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION AND END THE RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SFC AND ALOFT PROVIDING A DRY WEEKEND...

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO
FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON  65 47 51 31 / 100 100 30 05
MERIDIAN 65 48 53 32 / 100 100 30 05

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLOOD WATCH TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY EAST AND SOUTH.
LA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
AR...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0644 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061244-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0644 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF	LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO SILVER
CITY TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST A LINE FROM QUITMAN TO COLUMBIA FOR
THIS EVENING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER  CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. RICH GULF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT ENDING THE RAIN FROM
THE WEST.

...FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO  DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND WILL END
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.  HEAVY PERSISTENT RAINS SHOULD AFFECT
AREAS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE  EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION FOR
TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE RAINS COMBINED WITH DAMP	SOILS...WILL PRODUCE LARGER
RUNOFF WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS LIKELY GOING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO SOME OF OUR RIVERS
IN THE REGION ARE IN RIVER FLOOD CONDITION.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ROUGH
 WATERS.  DRIVERS OF VANS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL BE
NEEDED FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED  FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
558 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FITLER                  32.73N 91.03W
02/05/2004                   ISSAQUENA          MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING REPORTED NEAR FITLER

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VAUGHAN                 32.81N 90.04W
02/05/2004                   YAZOO              MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN NEAR VAUGHAN

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TALLULAH                32.41N 91.19W
02/05/2004                   MADISON            LA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 80 BETWEEN TALLULAH AND DELHI.

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BASKIN                  32.26N 91.75W
02/05/2004                   FRANKLIN           LA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING OVER RIDGE ROAD.

&&

ARC/MRW