Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...MY EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A MYRIAD OF
FRONTS ACROSS OUR AREA.  FURTHER WEST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE NEXT BIG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA LATE NIGHT
AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THATS THE SHORT VERSION.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALES...AROUND 1.5 INCHES...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF MY
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.  WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
YET TO COME THROUGH...IM SOMEWHAT RELUCTANT TO ALLOW THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE TONIGHT.  MY CURRENT THINKING IS TO KEEP THE
WATCH IN EFFECT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 (EXCLUDING
METRO JACKSON).  IN GENERAL...ILL TAPER MY RAIN CHANCES FROM CHANCE
TERRITORY IN THE ARKLAMISS...TO JUST ABOUT 100 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.  BUT OF COURSE...THESE ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON
LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO RADAR TRENDS.  I EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...AND ILL LET THAT EXPIRE
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...THE FORECAST SEEMINGLY GETS A
LITTLE MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD.  A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY.  CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND DURING THE DAY AS THE 850
MB THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA.  THESE SHOULD DIMINSH BY
SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE
WEEKEND.  EVEN THOUGH ITLL BE DRY THIS WEEKEND...IT SHOULD REMAIN
COOL AS THE LONGER WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY AND
ALLOW OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE.  PARTIAL
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES SUGGEST THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
FLURRIES.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERING HOW FAR DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS IN
THE FORECAST...ILL KEEP THE STATUS QUO GOING FOR NOW.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO OUR REGION.  EVEN
THOUGH I DONT THINK THERELL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM RIGHT NOW...I WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

THANKS GO OUT TO WFOS IN SLIDELL AND CALERA FOR COLLABORATION THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      47  50  30  43 / 100  30   0   0
MERIDIAN     48  51  31  44 / 100  30   0   0
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT
MSZ043>046-048-049-050>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BUTTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0644 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061244-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0644 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF	LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO SILVER
CITY TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST A LINE FROM QUITMAN TO COLUMBIA FOR
THIS EVENING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER  CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. RICH GULF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT ENDING THE RAIN FROM
THE WEST.

...FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO  DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND WILL END
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.  HEAVY PERSISTENT RAINS SHOULD AFFECT
AREAS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE  EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION FOR
TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE RAINS COMBINED WITH DAMP	SOILS...WILL PRODUCE LARGER
RUNOFF WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS LIKELY GOING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO SOME OF OUR RIVERS
IN THE REGION ARE IN RIVER FLOOD CONDITION.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ROUGH
 WATERS.  DRIVERS OF VANS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL BE
NEEDED FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED  FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
02/05/2004                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CARS FLOODED, STREETS FLOODED. WATER ENTERING INTO
            BUILDINGS.

1136 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
02/05/2004                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3.61 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED. MUDSLIDES REPORTED.

&&

MRW/ARC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1203 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PELAHATCHIE             32.32N 89.80W
02/05/2004                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W BRAXTON             32.02N 90.01W
02/05/2004                   SIMPSON            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ON HOUSE. ROAD BLOCKED.

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W BRAXTON             32.02N 90.01W
02/05/2004                   SIMPSON            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN. 10 TO 12 INCH BRANCHES BROKEN. TREE DAMAGE
            ABOVE 20 FEET. DAMAGE PATH QUARTER MILE WIDE.

&&

MRW/ARC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1216 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MORTON                  32.36N 89.66W
02/05/2004                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING

&&

MRW/ARC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S MENDENHALL          31.87N 89.87W
02/05/2004                   SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

MRW/ARC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
151 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W BRAXTON             32.02N 90.02W
02/05/2004                   SIMPSON            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TRAILER AND HOME ROOFS MISSING...TREES DOWN ON
            VEHICLES...ALONG STAR-BRAXTON ROAD

0103 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W BRAXTON             32.02N 90.01W
02/05/2004                   SIMPSON            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOMES...POWER LINES DOWN ALONG
            STAR-BRAXTON ROAD

&&

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE CRYSTAL SPRINGS    31.96N 90.32W
02/05/2004                   COPIAH             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER IS OVER ROAD AND BRIDGE AT BRUSHY CREEK AND CLEGG
            RD...TREES ARE STUCK UNDERNEATH BRIDGE

&&

KRAMAR