Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPED OVER SE TX/SW LA THIS MORNING...THE CONVECTIVE TREND
TURNED SHARPLY DOWNWARD ACCORDING TO ALL DATA SOURCES. HOWEVER...
STRONG DESTABLIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN RECENT HOURS OVER SE LA...
WHERE GULF INFLOW FINALLY INCREASED ENOUGH TO ERADICATE THE DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR EVIDENT IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. SO SECONDARY MCS
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND S OF INTERSTATE
20...AND EXPECT STEADY EWD PROGRESSION THRU SE MS BY EARLY EVNG.
THE UKMET AND 18Z ETA INDICATE THAT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BUCKLE THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE UKMET IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION INTO SRN/SE MS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL BANK ON THE SECONDARY WAVE SOLUTION AND
EXPECT MORE RAINFALL EVEN AFTER THE LATE AFTN MCS MAKES IT THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WITH MODELS
HINTING AT WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE PLACED
SLIGHT POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY MAY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PERFECT POSITION FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&

.LONG TERM...DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ARE LOOKING VERY QUIET AT THE MOMENT
WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGING A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT WEAK SUBTROPICAL ENERGY COULD
SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST AND PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION...
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
&&

43/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
022134-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
434 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CARTHAGE TO
MENDENHALL TO MONTICELLO.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS SLOWLY
TOWARD THE REGION...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE MARGINAL HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
RATHER UNSTABLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

 THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 10 PM.

...FLOODING...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ACT TO REINFORCE THIS MOIST AIRMASS AND ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55.	PONDING OF AREA ROADWAYS IN THIS AREA  IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED  THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED  FOR SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
SATURDAY MAY 8TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
509 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLINS                 31.64N 89.56W
05/01/2004                   COVINGTON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE ON TOP OF MOBILE HOME.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLINS                 31.64N 89.56W
05/01/2004                   COVINGTON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSE DAMAGED

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
532 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BASSFIELD               31.50N 89.74W
05/01/2004                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            15-20 TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 35 AND 42.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
539 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TAYLORSVILLE            31.83N 89.43W
05/01/2004                   SMITH              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN OVER MOST OF COUNTY.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             TAYLORSVILLE            31.83N 89.43W
05/01/2004  1.00 INCH        SMITH              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MM

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