Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ALSO MESO HIGH INFLUENCE
ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SOME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS HELP TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MS RIVER. THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO WATCHING THE COMPLEX MOVING TOWARD
THE GULF FROM SE TEXAS TO SW LOUISIANA. IF THAT COMPLEX STRETCHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...IT COULD CUT OFF SOME INSTABILITY FOR OUR
REGION AS FAR AS STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE CONCERN. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE RAISED TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE 70S. WILL HOLD ON TO
THE REST OF FORECAST WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
021104-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND SOUTH ON
INTERSTATE 20. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST A LINE FROM EUPORA TO JACKSON METRO TO BROOKHAVEN.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO PROGRESS SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN. MEANWHILE...DESPITE MARGINAL HEATING...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO
THE WEST...WHICH WAS PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS HELPING
TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

 THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

...FLOODING...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ACT TO REINFORCE THIS MOIST AIRMASS AND ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55.	PONDING OF AREA ROADWAYS IN THIS AREA  IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED  THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM  FRIDAY MAY 7.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.