Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPED OVER SE TX/SW LA THIS MORNING...THE CONVECTIVE TREND
TURNED SHARPLY DOWNWARD ACCORDING TO ALL DATA SOURCES. HOWEVER...
STRONG DESTABLIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN RECENT HOURS OVER SE LA...
WHERE GULF INFLOW FINALLY INCREASED ENOUGH TO ERADICATE THE DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR EVIDENT IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. SO SECONDARY MCS
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND S OF INTERSTATE
20...AND EXPECT STEADY EWD PROGRESSION THRU SE MS BY EARLY EVNG.
THE UKMET AND 18Z ETA INDICATE THAT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BUCKLE THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE UKMET IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION INTO SRN/SE MS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL BANK ON THE SECONDARY WAVE SOLUTION AND
EXPECT MORE RAINFALL EVEN AFTER THE LATE AFTN MCS MAKES IT THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WITH MODELS
HINTING AT WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE PLACED
SLIGHT POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY MAY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PERFECT POSITION FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&

.LONG TERM...DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ARE LOOKING VERY QUIET AT THE MOMENT
WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGING A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT WEAK SUBTROPICAL ENERGY COULD
SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST AND PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION...
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
&&

43/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
021104-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND SOUTH ON
INTERSTATE 20. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST A LINE FROM EUPORA TO JACKSON METRO TO BROOKHAVEN.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO PROGRESS SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN. MEANWHILE...DESPITE MARGINAL HEATING...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO
THE WEST...WHICH WAS PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS HELPING
TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

 THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

...FLOODING...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ACT TO REINFORCE THIS MOIST AIRMASS AND ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55.	PONDING OF AREA ROADWAYS IN THIS AREA  IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED  THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM  FRIDAY MAY 7.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.