Tornado Warning 37, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FLARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS
NEXT VORT LOBE/JET MAX MOVES ASHORE. WILL LIKELY GO LIKELY FOR POP
NUMBERS...AND KEEP THE FFA IN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THE THREAT WILL BE ENUMERATED ON THE FFA/HWO LATER THIS
MORNING. FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT
/TOMORROW (AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FIN-
ALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. DEEP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO PUT A DAMPER ON POPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WHILE MODELS TRY TO BRING IN A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND (ON THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW) SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN
OUT (THAT IS SAVE FOR THE ISOLATED STUFF THAT THE SEABREEZE SHOULD
GENERATE). THIS DRYISH SPELL PROGGED TO PERSIST ON THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT MRF/GFSLR STILL PERSISTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHCS
FOR THE EXTEME LATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROFFI-
NESS HELPS PRODUCE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...
THIS IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...AND LOW POPS SHOULD SUFFICE IN THE
MEANTIME. 41/47/31
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 5PM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 71 92 74 94 / 60 30 20 20 20
HOUSTON(IAH)          87 73 91 74 93 / 60 30 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS)       85 75 87 77 87 / 60 30 20 20 20
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
732 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DOWNBURSTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS
QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 5
INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES OVER THE AREA ARE VERY LIGHT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
RESULT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED UP
TO 5 INCHES.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REDUCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OF ROADWAYS TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.