Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PW AIR STILL RESIDENT OVER SE TX. THE AREA ALSO LIES IN THE RRQ
OF A DEPARTING JET MAX. 25H DOES SHOW WEAK CONVERGENCE FURTHER WEST.
85H JET AXIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...IMPINGING ON EXTREME SE TX
AND SW LA. AT 12Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
ALIGNED ALONG THE COAST FROM BAY CITY TO HOUSTON TO LAKE CHARLES. AM
NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GO TODAY...BUT
FEEL IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE FFA IN EFFECT. THINGS DETERIORATE
QUICKLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. CONCERN IS GROWING
ABOUT ENTRAINMENT OF SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FIRE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BEING ENHANCED BY
THE DEPARTING RRQ OF THE JET. THIS FLOOD THREAT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS AND WILL ADDRESS THE THREAT IN THE HWO/FFA.
WILL TRIM TEMPS DOWNWARD OVER THE EAST DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUDS.
WILL RAISE POPS EAST AND LEAVE POPS AS IS OVER THE WEST. 43/46

&&

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FLARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS
NEXT VORT LOBE/JET MAX MOVES ASHORE. WILL LIKELY GO LIKELY FOR POP
NUMBERS...AND KEEP THE FFA IN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THE THREAT WILL BE ENUMERATED ON THE FFA/HWO LATER THIS
MORNING. FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT
/TOMORROW (AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FIN-
ALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. DEEP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO PUT A DAMPER ON POPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WHILE MODELS TRY TO BRING IN A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND (ON THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW) SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN
OUT (THAT IS SAVE FOR THE ISOLATED STUFF THAT THE SEABREEZE SHOULD
GENERATE). THIS DRYISH SPELL PROGGED TO PERSIST ON THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT MRF/GFSLR STILL PERSISTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHCS
FOR THE EXTEME LATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROFFI-
NESS HELPS PRODUCE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...
THIS IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...AND LOW POPS SHOULD SUFFICE IN THE
MEANTIME. 41/47/31
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 5PM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 71 92 74 94 / 60 30 20 20 20
HOUSTON(IAH)          87 73 91 74 93 / 60 30 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS)       85 75 87 77 87 / 60 30 20 20 20
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-162200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1015 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SERIES OF PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FOCUSED ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
THIS COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
MID-AFTERNOON BUT NOT BEFORE DUMPING ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. SINCE 1 AM...PARTS
OF MATAGORDA COUNTY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER BRAZORIA AND GALVESTON COUNTIES.

FURTHER INLAND...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS LESS CLEAR. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE GROUND IS
SATURATED AND IT WONT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. ANOTHER INCH IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS BUT ISOLATED
AREAS COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS TODAY.
THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS RARELY TOUCH THE GROUND BUT IF THEY DO...THEY
BECOME TORNADOES AND CAN CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OF ROADWAYS TODAY.