Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FLARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS
NEXT VORT LOBE/JET MAX MOVES ASHORE. WILL LIKELY GO LIKELY FOR POP
NUMBERS...AND KEEP THE FFA IN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THE THREAT WILL BE ENUMERATED ON THE FFA/HWO LATER THIS
MORNING. FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT
/TOMORROW (AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FIN-
ALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. DEEP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO PUT A DAMPER ON POPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WHILE MODELS TRY TO BRING IN A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND (ON THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW) SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN
OUT (THAT IS SAVE FOR THE ISOLATED STUFF THAT THE SEABREEZE SHOULD
GENERATE). THIS DRYISH SPELL PROGGED TO PERSIST ON THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT MRF/GFSLR STILL PERSISTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHCS
FOR THE EXTEME LATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROFFI-
NESS HELPS PRODUCE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...
THIS IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...AND LOW POPS SHOULD SUFFICE IN THE
MEANTIME. 41/47/31
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 5PM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 71 92 74 94 / 60 30 20 20 20
HOUSTON(IAH)          87 73 91 74 93 / 60 30 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS)       85 75 87 77 87 / 60 30 20 20 20
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
737 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
737 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE STATE. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND ISOLATED TOTALS UP 4
INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND
ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILES OVER THE AREA INDICATE
THAT THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP WHICH COULD HELP LESSEN
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THE WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT DOES
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THE REST OF THE WEEK
SHOULD REDUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OF ROADWAYS TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.