Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WAITING FOR THE STORMS TO EXPLODE. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPES
NEAR 4000 IN THE SW 1/3RD OF THE AREA. BOUNDARY QUITE APPARENT FROM
REMAINS OF MCV REFLECTED IN SURFACE WINDS WITH THE WINDSHIFT FROM NEAR
VCT-LBX-EFD-BPT. WILL FAVOR THIS AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS. SEVERE THREAT
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS FITTING...HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL...
GIVEN CAPE...LI-8...SHEAR VERY WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE INDIVIDUAL
CELL OR MULTICELL STRUCTURED. WILL CONTINUE THE 60-70 POPS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL VERY SLOW. SECOND AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST INITIALLY THEN EXPANDING EAST AS
THE UPPER S/W OVER THE SAT AREA MOVES EAST. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE.

LITTLE LOWER POPS IN ORDER SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W COMING ACROSS
FROM THE WEST WITH LL FLOW MORE OR LESS THE SAME AS TODAY. THEN
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
THE ADVENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CA COAST MONDAY.
EXPECT TO SEE THE POPS DECREASE TO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S
INLAND TO MID AND UPPER 80S COAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MARINE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET.

ECMWF AND GFS...EVEN THE ETA INDICATING THAT IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO CURVE UP OUT OF THE CARRIBBEAN MIDWEEK AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...THIS COULD BRING WITH IT GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT GIVEN THE STRETCH OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 20-40 RANGE AND LET NEXT FEW DAYS OF RUNS
SORT OUT THE DETAILS.

45/41

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  73 91 73 91 73 / 50 30 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH)          74 91 74 91 75 / 60 40 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS)        78 87 78 88 79 / 50 30 20 30 20

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-061200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY WEST TOWARDS EL CAMPO AS
THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND COLLIDES WITH LIGHTER WINDS ASSOCIATED
THE REMAINS OF THE MORNING STORMS INLAND. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AND
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE GREATER THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

 IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DUE TO A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.