Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

MCS DEVELOPED OVER OUR NE ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND PROGRESSED
THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE LINE
OF STORMS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM CALDWELL TO RICHMOND TO GALVESTON AT
02Z...WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF IT. A SURPRISING
NUMBER OF HAIL REPORTS ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF MINOR WIND DAMAGE RECEIVED SO FAR. GIVEN WELL DEVELOPED
COLD POOL BEHIND MCS...GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW...AND MID 70S
DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO KEEP GOING FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MCS WHICH
HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX BETWEEN ABILENE AND WACO. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING MORE SOUTHWARD AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/BEST LOW LEVEL JET
FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO CENTRAL TX. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AND STICK WITH 40/50 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

A THIRD MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
COULD BRING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.

35/38/DH

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  70 90 73 91 74 / 50 40 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH)          70 90 74 91 74 / 50 40 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS)        75 88 78 87 78 / 50 40 30 30
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-051200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
315 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRENHAM
TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH
SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS...STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. INCREASING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.