Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 811.
THIS WATCH IS FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTENDS THE VALID TIME UNTIL 1
AM EDT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RAIN AND WIND IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY. SO FAR IFLOWS IS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWFA. WE RECENTLY
HAD A SPOTTER REPORT OF OVER 5 INCHES IN WALHALLA IN OCONEE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNTS ARE RATHER VARIABLE...AND THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MISSED THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS AND HAVE SEEN
ONLY AROUND AN INCH...THOUGH THEY ARE THE EXCEPTION. REPORTS OF
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THE SCARY THING
ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE TRUE WARM CORE CONVECTION...TO THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF FRANCES WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO COOL...
IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. CURRENT PRESSURE TRENDS REVEAL THAT
THE CENTER IS MOVING NNE WHICH WILL TAKE IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MTNS THROUGH WED. THE FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A PWAT OF 2.42
INCHES...THE HIGHEST VALUE THAT I EVER RECALL SEEING AND I THINK IT
WAS A GOOD SOUNDING. ALSO...WINDS IN OUR VAD ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING
ATTM. WINDS ARE NOW 50 KTS ON THE VAD FROM 3 THROUGH 7KFT MSL...A
GOOD 10 KNOT INCREASE IN THE LLVL VALUES FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.
LIFTING 2 INCH+ PW MOISTURE UP THE EAST SLOPES WITH 50KTS OF WIND IS
SIMPLY A PHENOMINAL RAINFALL MECHANISM. THIS APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING
AS PERHAPS THE WORST FLOOD EVENT IN PARTS OF THE CWFA SINCE JERRY...
THOUGH THIS EVENT WILL BE AFFECTING A LARGER AREA. PLAN TO REALLY HIT
UP THE NEXT FFA WITH VERY STRONG WORDING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST SEVERE IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT
THINGS COULD STILL BE QUITE BAD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. PLAN TO UP
RAINFALL TOTALS TO 5 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL IN THE NC MTNS AND PERHAPS
4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS.

ITS A GOOD THING THAT WE HAVE HAD LITTLE HEATING TDA. IF WE WERE
JUST A FEW DEG WARMER...I IMAGINE THAT THE WOULD HAVE HAD SEVERAL
MORE TORNADOES THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...NOW THAT LLVL WNDS ARE
INCREASING...BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.

WL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING UP FOR THE NC AND GA MTNS ALL NIGHT.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE DECK EVEN EAST OF
THE MTNS I/M GETTING A LITTLE WORRIED. EVEN IN THE MTNS...DON/T
THINK WE WL SEE WINDS THAT WOULD MERIT A HIGH WIND WARNING ON THEIR
OWN. HOWEVER...CALLS TO THE COUNTY ARE REVEALING AN INCREASING
NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES...AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME WORSE THIS
EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE PUBLIC.

FRANCES WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE NE WEDNESDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT
WL STALL OVER THE REGION ON THU...AND WITH RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DRYING ALOFT AND SFC CONVERGENCE...MAY SEE SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF PULSE SEVERE AND HAIL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ALONG EAST COAST TO KEEP SOUTHEAST FAIRLY
DRY IN WESTERN PART OF THE CAROLINAS WITH MOST PRECIP DVLPG
ALONG COAST.  THE TRACK ON IVAN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BY THE
WEEKEND.  GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GENERAL RIGHT BIAS SO ANY TRACK
IS SUSPECT.  LATEST NHC TRACK KEEPS TRACK TO THE LEFT OF MODELS.
SO UNTIL IVAN GETS CLOSER IM GOING KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY THE REMAINS OF FRANCES SPREADING
THROUGH AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS GUIDANCE AGREES WITH PERSISTENCE AND HOLDING
CIGS AND VSBY IN THE LOW MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES.

WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST 14Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER PASSES.
WIND SHOULD LESSEN AFTER THE CENTER PASSES ACROSS WITH CIGS AND VSBY
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE MIDDAY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 THROUGH TONIGHT.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>059-062>072-
     082 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-054-055-066-067 THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ001>008-010>014-019 THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-081000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH FLOODING A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA LATER TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED AT 441 AM. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 437 AM. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AT 542 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY...FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS. RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE AWAY THURSDAY...AFTER
WHICH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
09/07/2004                   STEPHENS           GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN
            AROUND THE TOWN OF TOCCOA. 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

SBK