Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 080413
FFSGSP
NCC089-149-161-080515-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1213 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR POLK...
HENDERSON AND RUTHERFORD COUNTIES...

AT MIDNIGHT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN 
CONTINUING OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAINFALL GAUGE 
REPORTS INDICATE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE AREA. COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURRING 
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NUMEROUS CREEKS AND STREAMS OUT OF THEIR 
BANKS. IN HENDERSON COUNTY...EVACUATIONS ARE UNDER WAY ALONG SOME 
STREAMS. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE COVERED WITH WATER IN THE LAKE LURE 
AREA...AND SOME BRIDGES ARE COVERED. IN POLK COUNTY...WATER IS 
SPILLING OVER THE DAM AT LAKE ADGER. HIGHWAY 9 IS EXPECTED TO SOON 
BE COVERED WITH WATER IN PARTS OF POLK COUNTY.   

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 
INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE THE FLOODING PROBLEM TO BECOME SERIOUS AND LIFE 
THREATENING ALONG SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3545 8266 3542 8254 3545 8237 3550 8232
      3546 8224 3551 8222 3554 8202 3552 8189
      3556 8183 3558 8170 3556 8169 3519 8177
      3519 8237 3521 8239 3517 8244 3516 8253
      3544 8271

$$

LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 811.
THIS WATCH IS FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTENDS THE VALID TIME UNTIL 1
AM EDT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RAIN AND WIND IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY. SO FAR IFLOWS IS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWFA. WE RECENTLY
HAD A SPOTTER REPORT OF OVER 5 INCHES IN WALHALLA IN OCONEE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNTS ARE RATHER VARIABLE...AND THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MISSED THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS AND HAVE SEEN
ONLY AROUND AN INCH...THOUGH THEY ARE THE EXCEPTION. REPORTS OF
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THE SCARY THING
ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE TRUE WARM CORE CONVECTION...TO THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF FRANCES WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO COOL...
IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. CURRENT PRESSURE TRENDS REVEAL THAT
THE CENTER IS MOVING NNE WHICH WILL TAKE IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MTNS THROUGH WED. THE FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A PWAT OF 2.42
INCHES...THE HIGHEST VALUE THAT I EVER RECALL SEEING AND I THINK IT
WAS A GOOD SOUNDING. ALSO...WINDS IN OUR VAD ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING
ATTM. WINDS ARE NOW 50 KTS ON THE VAD FROM 3 THROUGH 7KFT MSL...A
GOOD 10 KNOT INCREASE IN THE LLVL VALUES FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.
LIFTING 2 INCH+ PW MOISTURE UP THE EAST SLOPES WITH 50KTS OF WIND IS
SIMPLY A PHENOMINAL RAINFALL MECHANISM. THIS APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING
AS PERHAPS THE WORST FLOOD EVENT IN PARTS OF THE CWFA SINCE JERRY...
THOUGH THIS EVENT WILL BE AFFECTING A LARGER AREA. PLAN TO REALLY HIT
UP THE NEXT FFA WITH VERY STRONG WORDING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST SEVERE IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT
THINGS COULD STILL BE QUITE BAD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. PLAN TO UP
RAINFALL TOTALS TO 5 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL IN THE NC MTNS AND PERHAPS
4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS.

ITS A GOOD THING THAT WE HAVE HAD LITTLE HEATING TDA. IF WE WERE
JUST A FEW DEG WARMER...I IMAGINE THAT THE WOULD HAVE HAD SEVERAL
MORE TORNADOES THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...NOW THAT LLVL WNDS ARE
INCREASING...BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.

WL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING UP FOR THE NC AND GA MTNS ALL NIGHT.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE DECK EVEN EAST OF
THE MTNS I/M GETTING A LITTLE WORRIED. EVEN IN THE MTNS...DON/T
THINK WE WL SEE WINDS THAT WOULD MERIT A HIGH WIND WARNING ON THEIR
OWN. HOWEVER...CALLS TO THE COUNTY ARE REVEALING AN INCREASING
NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES...AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME WORSE THIS
EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE PUBLIC.

FRANCES WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE NE WEDNESDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT
WL STALL OVER THE REGION ON THU...AND WITH RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DRYING ALOFT AND SFC CONVERGENCE...MAY SEE SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF PULSE SEVERE AND HAIL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ALONG EAST COAST TO KEEP SOUTHEAST FAIRLY
DRY IN WESTERN PART OF THE CAROLINAS WITH MOST PRECIP DVLPG
ALONG COAST.  THE TRACK ON IVAN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BY THE
WEEKEND.  GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GENERAL RIGHT BIAS SO ANY TRACK
IS SUSPECT.  LATEST NHC TRACK KEEPS TRACK TO THE LEFT OF MODELS.
SO UNTIL IVAN GETS CLOSER IM GOING KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY THE REMAINS OF FRANCES SPREADING
THROUGH AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS GUIDANCE AGREES WITH PERSISTENCE AND HOLDING
CIGS AND VSBY IN THE LOW MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES.

WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST 14Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER PASSES.
WIND SHOULD LESSEN AFTER THE CENTER PASSES ACROSS WITH CIGS AND VSBY
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE MIDDAY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 THROUGH TONIGHT.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>059-062>072-
     082 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-054-055-066-067 THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ001>008-010>014-019 THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-081000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH FLOODING A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA LATER TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED AT 441 AM. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 437 AM. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AT 542 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY...FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS. RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE AWAY THURSDAY...AFTER
WHICH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
09/07/2004                   STEPHENS           GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN
            AROUND THE TOWN OF TOCCOA. 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

SBK