Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND WIND POSSIBILITIES
TONIGHT AND TEMPEATURES THROUGH TUE.

BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT LIES ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM NEAR MCCOOK NEB TO
NEAR TRIBUNE KS. IT CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. FROM
THERE TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S...COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAP...90+ HEAT AND 3000+ JOULES OF
ENERGY ARE BEGINNING TO RESULT IN CUMULUS FIELDS AS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SAT. EXPECT SCT TSRAS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN THE AREA...WITH THE
STRONGEST AND LONGEST (LIKELY) IN THE FAR EAST WHERE CAPE IS
GREATEST AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE SCENARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH CO AND KICKING OFF AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN CO NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH/MOVE
INTO MY CWA FROM THE WEST. AM CURRENTLY ISSUING A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF MY CWA. BEHIND THIS FAST
MOVING TROUGH MODELS INDICATE A TRAILING STRONG SUBSIDENCE FIELD
WHICH LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PUSH THE GENERAL NW WIND FIELD INTO THE
ADVISORY AREA FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE
NIGHT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO STABILIZE SOME BEFORE DAWN.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WITH SKIES CLEARING
FROM THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST. FROM THERE THE AREA COMES UNDER THE
AFFECT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NW UPPER FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
NO PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO
WED.

THEN...AS NOTED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO RETURN THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER A DRYING TREND LOOKS
TO OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND.

THANKS PARTICULARLY TO LBF AND DDC FOR COLLABORATION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW KS. FINALLY A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT/MIDNIGHT MDT FOR ENTIRE AREA.
NE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM
CDT). A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM CDT/MIDNIGHT MDT.
CO...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

&&

RJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1036 AM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GRAINFIELD KANSAS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL EAST
OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO KIT CARSON COLORADO. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA EXTENDS EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO HIGHWAY 83.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND DRYLINE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. A STRONG
UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

EVERYONE SHOULD WEATHER TAKE THIS WEATHER THREAT SERIOUSLY AND PLAN
AHEAD FOR STORM SAFETY SHELTERS AND OTHER PRECAUTIONS. STAY TUNED TO
LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR UPDATES TO THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION EACH EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
351 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             5 N BURLINGTON          39.38N 102.27W
05/29/2004  1.00 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N RULETON             39.44N 101.88W
05/29/2004  60 MPH           SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND GST     RULETON                 39.34N 101.88W
05/29/2004  63 MPH           SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 NW ST. FRANCIS       39.91N 101.99W
05/29/2004  70 MPH           CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 W GOODLAND           39.35N 101.95W
05/29/2004  77 MPH           SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             3 W ST. FRANCIS         39.77N 101.86W
05/29/2004  0.75 INCH        CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

JOHNSON