Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND WIND POSSIBILITIES
TONIGHT AND TEMPEATURES THROUGH TUE.

BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT LIES ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM NEAR MCCOOK NEB TO
NEAR TRIBUNE KS. IT CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. FROM
THERE TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S...COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAP...90+ HEAT AND 3000+ JOULES OF
ENERGY ARE BEGINNING TO RESULT IN CUMULUS FIELDS AS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SAT. EXPECT SCT TSRAS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN THE AREA...WITH THE
STRONGEST AND LONGEST (LIKELY) IN THE FAR EAST WHERE CAPE IS
GREATEST AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE SCENARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH CO AND KICKING OFF AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN CO NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH/MOVE
INTO MY CWA FROM THE WEST. AM CURRENTLY ISSUING A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF MY CWA. BEHIND THIS FAST
MOVING TROUGH MODELS INDICATE A TRAILING STRONG SUBSIDENCE FIELD
WHICH LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PUSH THE GENERAL NW WIND FIELD INTO THE
ADVISORY AREA FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE
NIGHT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO STABILIZE SOME BEFORE DAWN.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WITH SKIES CLEARING
FROM THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST. FROM THERE THE AREA COMES UNDER THE
AFFECT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NW UPPER FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
NO PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO
WED.

THEN...AS NOTED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO RETURN THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER A DRYING TREND LOOKS
TO OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND.

THANKS PARTICULARLY TO LBF AND DDC FOR COLLABORATION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW KS. FINALLY A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT/MIDNIGHT MDT FOR ENTIRE AREA.
NE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM
CDT). A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM CDT/MIDNIGHT MDT.
CO...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

&&

RJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1036 AM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GRAINFIELD KANSAS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL EAST
OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO KIT CARSON COLORADO. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA EXTENDS EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO HIGHWAY 83.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND DRYLINE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. A STRONG
UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

EVERYONE SHOULD WEATHER TAKE THIS WEATHER THREAT SERIOUSLY AND PLAN
AHEAD FOR STORM SAFETY SHELTERS AND OTHER PRECAUTIONS. STAY TUNED TO
LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR UPDATES TO THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION EACH EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

KSZ004-016-300300-
GRAHAM-NORTON-
308 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 323 IN EFFECT FOR PART OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 323 FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM 300 PM CDT UNTIL
10 PM CDT.

IN KANSAS...NORTON AND GRAHAM

CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE...NORTON AND HILL CITY

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

FS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     HAIL             14 N FLAGLER            39.50N 103.07W
05/29/2004  0.75 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JOHNSON

COZ090>092-KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO TYPE OF WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 325 IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL 9
PM MDT (10 PM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 325 FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM 300
PM MDT (400 PM CDT) UNTIL 900 PM MDT (1000 PM CDT).

IN COLORADO...YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE

IN NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...RED WILLOW

IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...SHERMAN...THOMAS...
SHERIDAN...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...WICHITA.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTROMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

FS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
319 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             15 N SEIBERT            39.52N 102.87W
05/29/2004  0.75 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
343 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             SEIBERT                 39.30N 102.87W
05/29/2004  0.75 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
351 PM MDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             5 N BURLINGTON          39.38N 102.27W
05/29/2004  1.00 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JOHNSON