Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD IS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS GOING TO BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN WHERE THE CONVECTION IS AND
IS NOT GOING TO BE THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TOMORROW MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE...
CLOUDS AND FAIRLY STRONG CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ON
TUESDAY THAN TODAY. BY WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A FEW LESS CLOUDS AND
WEAKER CAA SO THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  THURSDAY REMAINS DRY
ATTM ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS TO POSITION OF WARM
FRONT AND SFC TROF WHILE WEAK SUBTLE WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EXISTS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AHEAD
OF MEAN UPPER TROF FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER TROF FOR THE
WEEKEND AND FOLLOWED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH TSTM CHCS THRU
SUNDAY AND COOLING TREND BEHIND COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY THEN FORECAST
DRIES BY MONDAY ON BACK SIDE OF TROF AXIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.KS...NONE.
&&

EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT THE
FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CRPHASE1.HTM

JCB/FAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087-251200-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-GREELEY-HALL-HAMILTON-HOWARD-MERRICK-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-POLK-THAYER-WEBSTER-YORK-
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER NOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EAST OF HIGHWAY 14 DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OUT
OF THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND REFINED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 14.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084-251200-
BUFFALO-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-HARLAN-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MITCHELL-
OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-VALLEY-
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER NOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OUT
OF THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND REFINED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             4 W CLAY CENTER         40.52N 98.13W
05/24/2004  0.75 INCH        CLAY               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

KISNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
306 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SW CLAY CENTER        40.48N 98.11W
05/24/2004                   CLAY               NE   PUBLIC

0305 PM     TORNADO          5 SE DEWEESE            40.30N 98.07W
05/24/2004                   NUCKOLLS           NE   STORM CHASER

&&

KISNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TORNADO          4 W DAVENPORT           40.31N 97.89W
05/24/2004                   NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KISNER