Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND CHANGE WORDING FOR SEVERE. OTHERWISE FEW OTHER CHANGES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING ACTIVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WY AND
WESTERN SD WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS IS A RESULT OF A STRONG
WAVE...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY EXITING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  LATEST SAT IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS A STRATUS DECK MOVING SOUTH INTO AREA AT TIME WITH THE 06Z
ETA INDICATING THIS CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN AROUND AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  THIS LOOKS TO SETUP A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CWA WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NEAR ORD TO NEAR 90 AROUND OSBORNE.
HOWEVER...MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN IN COMBINATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AS
THIS WILL DETERMINE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST GUESS AT
THIS POINT IS THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT AS WELL AS
SHEAR SO WILL PLAY UP EVENT IN HWO.

FRONT THEN CLEARS AREA BY EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH PRECIP CHANCE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...AS NEXT WAVE KICKS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND LLJ STRENGTHENS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COLD FRONT THEN REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY AS 100-110 KT
UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE REGION.  LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MAY
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING SOME ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ORD TO CENTRAL CITY AREAS DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
SPEAKING OF COOLER AIR WILL AIM HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE
LOW 70S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA AND
COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE
REGION.  HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

BEYOND THURSDAY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.KS...NONE.
&&

EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT THE
FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CRPHASE1.HTM

JCB/AWJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087-251200-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-GREELEY-HALL-HAMILTON-HOWARD-MERRICK-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-POLK-THAYER-WEBSTER-YORK-
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER NOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EAST OF HIGHWAY 14 DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OUT
OF THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND REFINED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 14.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084-251200-
BUFFALO-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-HARLAN-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MITCHELL-
OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-VALLEY-
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER NOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OUT
OF THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND REFINED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

JCB