Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST TODAY AS WOULD
HAVE LIKED AS ONGOING CONVECTION AND FIRST PERIOD CONCERNS HAVE
OVERWHELMED THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER...MAIN FEATURES OF
INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WARM FRONT SITTING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500-4000
J/KG RANGE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH NEARLY THAT ELEVATED OVER THE
WARM FRONT AS WELL.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR HAS SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
ONGOING CONVECTION HAS PRIMARILY BEEN ANCHORED ON OR TO THE NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.  FULLY ANTICIPATE THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SECONDARY WAVE JUST MOVING
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AT TIME AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING.  SEVERE THREAT LOOKS JUST AS GOOD IS
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTS OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT INTO AREA
BEFORE STALLING.  THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREA THROUGH WEEKEND.  OVERALL AREA SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE
INCREASE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BE FULLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS AND PRECIP CHANCES FAIRLY SMALL.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.KS...NONE.
&&

AWJ/MSL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
258 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039-046-047-060>063-072>076-082>087-081200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-HALL-HAMILTON-
HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MITCHELL-NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-VALLEY-WEBSTER-
258 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY TO GENEVA LINE AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 BY EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEZ040-041-048-049-064-077-081200-
FILLMORE-GREELEY-MERRICK-NANCE-POLK-YORK-
258 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY TO GENEVA LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
423 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             E LEBANON               39.81N 98.56W
07/07/2004  1.00 INCH        SMITH              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL REPORTED.

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
429 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 39.81N 98.56W
07/07/2004  1.00 INCH        SMITH              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
431 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 39.81N 98.56W
07/07/2004  1.75 INCH        SMITH              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
436 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELOIT                  39.47N 98.11W
07/07/2004                   MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. ROOFS MISSING.
            DOORS BLOWN IN AND POWERPOLES AND TREES SNAPPED. POWER
            POLES AND LINES DOWN ACROSS STREETS IN MANY PARTS OF THE
            CITY.

&&

LEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
0455 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME(CDT)  ...EVENT...       ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....       ...COUNTY LOCATION...ST.....SOURCE...
             ..REMARKS..

0449 PM      HAIL                6 SW OF MANKATO         0.00N  0W
07/07/2004   1.75 INCH           JEWELL             KS   STORM SPOTTER
             CAN ALSO SEE SOME ROTATION WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM NE OF
             IONIA

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             IONIA                   39.66N 98.35W
07/07/2004  1.75 INCH        JEWELL             KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

LEW