Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
922 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROF AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE COMBINED TO FORM A
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. TO ADDRESS THIS HAVE
UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL WORDING. THIS CONVECTION
LINES UP WELL WITH THE ETA AND RUC. WITH THE EXITING MCS OVER
OKLAHOMA THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN
NE/KS AND EASTERN CO.

&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER. OTHERWISE OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE OF SIGNIFICANCE. NOT ONLY WILL IT
BE THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH A LOCATION IN NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FEATURE THAT IS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LLJ AND IF THERE IS
ENOUGH TIME TO GET WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THIS
TIME THE WARM FRONT HAS DRIFTED FURTHER NORTH. WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST...WARM/MOIST AIR HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO GET INTO THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT HAS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER. THE FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE AREA AND WEAKENED. MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST AND AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY TO TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER
THE RIDGE BUT THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.KS...NONE.
&&

LEWIS/JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
258 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039-046-047-060>063-072>076-082>087-081200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-HALL-HAMILTON-
HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MITCHELL-NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-VALLEY-WEBSTER-
258 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY TO GENEVA LINE AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 BY EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEZ040-041-048-049-064-077-081200-
FILLMORE-GREELEY-MERRICK-NANCE-POLK-YORK-
258 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY TO GENEVA LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
150 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     HAIL             2 E RED CLOUD           40.09N 98.48W
07/07/2004  1.00 INCH        WEBSTER            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             3 N BURR OAK            39.91N 98.30W
07/07/2004  1.75 INCH        JEWELL             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEW

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