Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 24 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AS SEEN ON 5H PLOT DATA. STEERING FLOW OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS NOW FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE 400 MB LEVEL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...BUT MUCH HIGHER FROM THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA NORTHWARD THANKS TO OUTFLOW FROM STORMS YESTERDAY.
STORMS FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND POINTS NORTH HAVE BEEN
STRONGER TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE RIM OVER YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES. STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION FROM THE RIM. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING IN THAT AREA WITH MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCAL FLOODING RAINS THE MAIN
THREATS. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF
THE NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. BY MONDAY...SOME DRY AIR MAY WORK INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRYING WESTERLY
FLOW LIKELY DEVELOPING. HAVE REDUCED POPS IN ALL AREAS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE WHITE MTN REGION WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS AS THE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO OUR SOUTH COULD KEEP THAT AREA
RELATIVELY MOIST. MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK TO OUR
EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY RETURNING.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

JOHNDROW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT JUL 24 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-251400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
950 AM MST SAT JUL 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS IN THAT AREA TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF THE RIM INTO YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.