Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 191134
FFWFGZ
AZC005-025-191430-
/X.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0004.040919T1124Z-040919T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
424 AM MST SUN SEP 19 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 730 AM MST

* AT 418 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE 
  GRAND CANYON VILLAGE SOUTHWEST THROUGH BAGDAD. 

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CROSS
  MOUNTAIN...MOUNT HOPE...YAVA...VALLE...TUSAYAN...SKULL VALLEY...
  SELIGMAN...PAULDEN...KIRKLAND...BAGDAD AND ASH FORK.

THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER AREAS PREVIOUSLY HIT BY HEAVY RAINS THAT 
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. THIS EXTRA RAINFALL WILL MAKE 
THIS A VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS...AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. 
ADDITIONALLY...OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING. 
THIS HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO TRIGGER MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP 
TERRAIN. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY 
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
FLAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3491 11333 3424 11333 3428 11279 3595 11177
      3603 11224 3518 11333

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WAS NOTED
THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM STORMS YESTERDAY
AND A WEAK GULF SURGE. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS
BEEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
THIS AREA IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO POPS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE. A VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW EXISTS FOR STORMS OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM. THE LITTLE STEERING FLOW WE DO HAVE OVER YAVAPAI
COUNTY IS FROM THE WEST BASED ON OBSERVED STORM MOTION. THIS IS
MAKING IT LOOK LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
MOVING INTO YAVAPAI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THERE
AND ANY OUTFLOWS MOVING THROUGH WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SETTING OFF A
STORM. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OFF THE CHUSKA MTNS AND
MOGOLLON RIM ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION GOING INTO THE EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD PUTTING OUR AREA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. POPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE RIM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA
COUNTIES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
PUT NORTHERN AZ IN A DRIER PATTERN.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

JOHNDROW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-241400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH. EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF THE
RIM INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
356 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             HEBER-OVERGAARD         34.41N 110.57W
07/23/2004  0.88 INCH        NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

0240 PM     HAIL             PINETOP-LAKESIDE        34.15N 109.97W
07/23/2004  0.75 INCH        NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JJ