Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUL 24 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON 5H PLOT DATA.
STEERING FLOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA IS NOW FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE 400 MB LEVEL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM...BUT MUCH HIGHER FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA NORTHWARD THANKS TO
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS YESTERDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BELLEMONT IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAYS DUE TO THIS ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD BY LATE THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STORM ANVILS WILL BE BLOWN
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORM INFLOW REGIONS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS TO PROPAGATE SOUTH OFF THE RIM. WILL MENTION LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SUNDAYS PATTERN
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING
FLOW. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS SIMILAR...BUT WITH SOME DRYING POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF...AND A LESS PRONOUNCED NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

FOR THE EXTENDED...A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN MEXICO WITH SOME MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH MOVES AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THERE COULD BE A DISTINCT DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
(AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC) AND DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
DRIEST AREA WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. LOW POPS IN
OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LOOK OK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

JOHNDROW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT JUL 24 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-251400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
950 AM MST SAT JUL 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS IN THAT AREA TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF THE RIM INTO YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.