Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WAS NEAR THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN/ND BORDER WAS
MOVING EAST ON WATER VAPOR. ALSO WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TWO
VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW, ONE OVER NORTHEAST ND
AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHWEST ND. 500 HPA UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING HAS 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT BIS AND 60 METER HEIGHT RISES
AT TFX. BUILDING RIDGE WAS OCCURRING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
SOME DRYING/DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR OVER ALBERTA/MT MOVING
SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS INTO THE BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY.
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FORECAST OVER EASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER CAPES FORECAST OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH
1500 J/KG EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST AND 2500 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
ASSUMING WE GET CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE THE
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SLOT OVER
SOUTHWEST ZONES AND SHOULD SHIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER
NORTHWEST MN. WILL KEEP THREAT OF THUNDER FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081500-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MINNESOTA
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND MID-DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED AS A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH MINNESOTA BEFORE
SURFACE HEATING CAUSES THEM TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

GV