Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
353 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ND AND WAS MOVING EAST. LOW WAS ROTATING QUICKLY WITH
DRYING/DARKENING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. VORTICITY
MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE LOCATE OVER NORTHWEST MN AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA, COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LIFTED INDICES REMAIN LOW AROUND
-6 OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH RESPECTABLE MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHWEST MN. SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
FSE WITH A WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST IA. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WAS TO THE WEST. LAPS SHOWING CAPES AROUND 1400J/KG ACROSS
THE VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FORECAST TO HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. RADAR SHOWING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEY. HIGHEST INSTABILITIES WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO YWG.
RAIN EXTENDS QUITE A WAYS BACK INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN IN
DEFORMATION ZONES.

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. A THIRD SHORT WAVE NORTH OF ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

.LONG TERM...
EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS. PERIODIC
SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN FLOW SHOULD FOR THE MOST
MOST PART BE NON SIGNIFICANT IN NATURE. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH A HINT OF A
MODERATING TREND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #719 FOR ALL OF ERN ND TIL 6 PM CDT.
MN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #719 FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MN EXCEPT CLEARWATER AND LAKE OF THE WOODS THROUGH WADENA
COUNTIES.

&&

HOPPES/BERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081500-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MINNESOTA
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND MID-DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED AS A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH MINNESOTA BEFORE
SURFACE HEATING CAUSES THEM TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

GV